Long Range Forecast: ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ ‘Ferdinand’

Croak

This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes the addition of the year’s most anticipated film, as well as the latest animated project from Blue Sky Studios. Our initial analyses and forecasts:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Disney / Lucasfilm

PROS:

  • It’s Star Wars. The family component remains as strong as ever now that multiple generations of fans have embraced the new saga centered around Rey, Kylo Ren, Poe Dameron, and Finn. With Mark Hamill’s Luke Skywalker at the forefront of things this time around, and the late Carrie Fisher in her final role as General Leia, older fans will be eager to see their stories continue as well.
  • The film’s trailers have again excited die hard and casual fans alike. Twitter activity is comparable to that of The Force Awakens shortly after its October 2015 trailer release, while also coming in significantly ahead of last year’s Rogue One at the same point in the pre-release window.
  • Writer/director Rian Johnson is a highly respected and successful young filmmaker with creative credentials including LooperBrick, and several highly acclaimed episodes of Breaking Bad. His involvement and direct input into this chapter’s creative direction have inspired a strong sense of encouragement among fans about what to expect from the franchise’s continuation.
  • As evidenced by last year’s Rogue One, the enduring appeal and cultural impact of Star Wars continues to transcend other franchises as even its spin-off films without established, familiar characters perform at a level most series never reach at their peak. With another return to the core saga films this year, Last Jedi should again reach heights achieved by very few films — pending positive word of mouth and reviews, of course.

CONS:

  • It’s Star Wars. No, that’s not a bad thing, but it does mean expectations will be astronomically high. Regardless of general sentiment, there will always be some sect of the audience not as thrilled with the final product as others. The phenomenal run by The Force Awakens to become the highest grossing domestic film of all-time will inevitably result in comparisons to Last Jedi‘s box office performance. It’s an apples-to-oranges benchmark, though, given that this is clearly known to be the middle chapter of a trilogy. Presumably, this will provide the fewest “standalone movie” characteristics of the new episodes — ala The Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones, middle chapters that became the “lowest” box office performers of the previous trilogies. As such, any suggestion that this film would have under-performed in the event that it falls well short of TFA‘s records and/or lifetime gross should be wholly ignored.

Ferdinand
Fox / Blue Sky

PROS:

  • Blue Sky Animation and director Carlos Saldanha have a strong track record with the past successes of the Ice Age and Rio franchises. Of the eleven films released under the studio’s banner, ten of them have gone on to earn $100 million or more domestically.
  • The strong ensemble voice cast led by John Cena’s titular character lends itself to parental appeal, a key to success when it comes to animated breakouts — particularly around the holiday season.
  • As the only other major studio animated offering through the holidays besides Disney/Pixar’s Coco, family crowds will likely gravitate toward this over Christmas and New Year’s.

CONS:

  • The character — based on a little known 20th century animated property — doesn’t have the built-in awareness among kids to turn this into a huge debut out of the gate.
  • Likewise, opening weekend competition is stiff (to say the least) as plenty of family audiences will be turning out for Star WarsJumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will similarly be aiming for family audiences when it debuts closer to Christmas.
  • While healthy in general, social media activity currently lags behind that of last year’s Sing — particularly on Facebook.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Jigsaw buzz has stagnated somewhat in recent days. As we continue expecting the Netflix release of Stranger Things Season 2 to keep many horror fans home over opening weekend, we’ve our lowered expectations for the franchise reboot.
  • Suburbicon has yet to build traction across social media. The film’s mixed reviews heading into a crowded November also remain a concern.
  • Daddy’s Home 2 remains a candidate to perform fairly well, but the recent history of comedic sequels again plays into our reasoning for lowered forecasts.
  • Murder on the Orient Express is building steam (no pun intended) ahead of its debut as marketing begins to peak. Social media trends are very encouraging. This is definitely an adult-friendly counter-programmer to keep an eye on.

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release DateTitle3-Day Wide Opening% Chg from Last WeekDomestic Total% Chg from Last WeekLocation CountDistributor
10/27/2017Jigsaw$12,000,000-20%$25,800,000-20%2,700Lionsgate
10/27/2017Suburbicon$8,500,000-15%$27,000,000-16%2,000Paramount
10/27/2017Thank You for Your Service$5,000,000$17,500,0002,000Universal
11/1/2017A Bad Moms Christmas$22,000,000$85,000,0003,200STXfilms
11/3/2017Thor: Ragnarok$105,000,000$269,000,0004,000Disney / Marvel Studios
11/10/2017Daddy’s Home 2$27,000,000-10%$85,500,000-10%Paramount
11/10/2017Murder on the Orient Express$25,000,0006%$94,000,0006%Fox
11/17/2017Justice League$150,000,000$330,000,000Warner Bros.
11/17/2017The Star$13,000,000$60,000,000Sony / Columbia
11/17/2017Wonder$16,000,000$65,000,000Lionsgate
11/22/2017Chappaquiddickn/an/aEntertainment Studios
11/22/2017Coco$60,000,000$270,000,000Disney / Pixar
11/22/2017The Man Who Invented Christmasn/an/aBleecker Street
11/22/2017Polaroid$2,500,000$7,000,000TWC / Dimension
11/24/2017Darkest Hourn/an/aFocus Features
12/1/2017(no films scheduled currently)
12/8/2017The Disaster Artistn/an/aA24
12/8/2017Just Getting Started$8,000,000$36,000,000Broad Green Pictures
12/15/2017Ferdinand$20,000,000NEW$150,000,000NEWFox
12/15/2017Star Wars: The Last Jedi$215,000,000NEW$742,000,000NEWDisney / Lucasfilm