Weekend Forecast: Will Pixar’s ‘Coco’ Reign for Thanksgiving Over ‘Justice League’ Breakout ‘Wonder’?

Croak

With the latest Disney/Pixar release hitting theaters tomorrow (technically, tonight), we’re releasing our weekend forecast earlier than usual this week. (Note: several key theater counts were not yet confirmed at the time of this report’s writing.)

PROS:

  • Coco will aim to become the next original Pixar hit as fans of the brand name turn out for their latest holiday release, which has become a tradition for many families. The film has earned a strong 94 percent “Certified Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing, and is expected to appeal strongly among Latino audiences — particularly after its record-setting box office numbers in Mexico. The film’s Facebook activity has closely mirrored that of films like Moana and Zootopia, while all trends are well ahead of 2015’s The Good Dinosaur — indicating fans and families alike are hungry for the first well-reviewed, major studio animated release to hit the market in many months. The well-publicized Frozen short film starring Olaf could also be a significant factor in boosting interest.

CONS:

  • The breakout status of Wonder could potentially hinder some of Coco‘s target family audience this weekend, although co-existence is surely possible as well. Twitter activity hasn’t been as strong as that of recent Disney or Pixar animated titles such as Moana, which could partly be attributed to the common name title making for difficult search strings. In general, the expectation is that the film should have excellent staying power with only December 15’s Ferdinand set to compete directly for the same target audience before January.

The 3-Day Thanksgiving Weekend Top 10 Forecast:

TitleDistributorWeekendDomestic Total through Sunday, November 26% Change
CocoDisney / Pixar$51,000,000$74,000,000NEW
Justice LeagueWarner Bros.$47,000,000$180,000,000-47%
WonderLionsgate$29,000,000$78,200,000+5%
Thor: RagnarokDisney / Marvel Studios$17,400,000$277,800,000-20%
Daddy’s Home 2Paramount$12,300,000$69,800,000-15%
Murder on the Orient ExpressFox$11,800,000$71,700,000-15%
The StarSony / Columbia$8,000,000$22,200,000-18%
A Bad Moms ChristmasSTXfilms$6,000,000$60,400,000-14%
Lady BirdA24$5,900,000$12,900,000+135%
Roman J. Israel, Esq.Sony / Columbia$4,000,000$5,100,000+635%