NEW DELHI: Volatility marked the proceedings on Dalal Street throughout last week, as headline indices Sensex and Nifty swung between gains and losses as investors remained wary about the Indo-Pak tension and political uncertainty in the run-up to general election. However, there was a gradual ebb in volatility by the end of the week, as volatility gauge India VIX, fell some 3.75 per cent to end at 15.45 on Friday. During the week, Sensex broke its nine-day losing streak, its longest in almost eight years.

On a weekly basis, the 30-share index inched up marginally by 63 points, or 0.17 per cent.

NSE’s Nifty50 climbed 67 points, or 0.63 per cent. Going into a new week, FO expiry, outcome of the US-China trade talks and some key macroeconomic numbers will decide the course for the market. Let's take a look at the factors that will dictate market movement in the week ahead: FO expiryThe domestic stock market may witness increased volatility as February series futures options contracts expire on Thursday, and investors roll over positions to March series.

Nifty futures saw a flattish close at 10,809 last Friday.

On the options front, maximum Put open interest was seen at 10,700 followed by 10,400 strike, while maximum Call OI was at 11,000 followed by 10,900 strike. US-China talksOffering big relief to markets across the globe, the ongoing US-China trade talks sending out some positive signals.

US President Donald Trump's optimistic tone is expected to bolster market mood.

Media reports suggested the US might extend the deadline to raise tariffs and Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping may meet next month to ink an amicable trade agreement. GDP numbersAll eyes will be on India's third quarter GDP numbers to be released on Thursday, February 28.

India's growth this financial year is projected at 7.2 per cent.

GDP expanded at 8 per cent, 8.2 per cent and 7.2 per in the previous three years.

According to a Niti Aayog, while the world GDP growth would be 3.7 per cent in 2018-19, India is likely long 7.2 per cent growth.

The median estimate for seven emerging market economies (Brazil, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Russia, South Africa and Turkey) is 3.5 per cent. Infrastructure output, fiscal deficit dataFiscal deficit and infrastructure output numbers for January will be released on Thursday.

Both are major macroeconomic indicators which can say a lot about the health of the economy and its prospects in the near future.

The growth of India’s infrastructure industries slowed to an 18-month low in December, as coal, crude and fertilisers sectors proved a drag.

Fiscal deficit narrowed in December but still stood at 112.4 per cent of the budget estimate of Rs 6.24 lakh crore for 2018-19. Political landscapeGeneral elections are expected to take place in April-May.

There are speculations that the Election Commission of India may announce election dates in the first week of March.

Financial markets hate political and economic instability and cannot keep aloof from political developments ahead of a key election.

Talks of alliances and projections possible outcome will continues to sway the market in the weeks ahead. Crude oilCrude oil prices have been on an upward trajectory again amid tight supply from Opec and its allies.

Moreover, hopes of a trade deal between the US and China have also boosted oil prices, which touched their highest since mid-November on Friday.

Oil prices have a direct relation with India’s fiscal math, as the nation is a major importer of crude oil.

The domestic market may see some capital outflow if the rise in crude oil prices continues. Technical outlookNifty’s weekly chart showed the emergence of buying at lows.

Given the current set-up, the index has the potential to rally towards its 200-DMA at 10,861 and possibly 10,915 over the next few days, said Arun Kumar, Market Strategist at Reliance Securities.

From a weekly point of view, it will be important for Nifty to move past and remain above the 10,790 level on a closing basis.

Unless this happens, it will remain vulnerable to bouts of selloff at higher levels, said Milan Vaishnav, technical analyst.