On expected lines, NSE Nifty slipped further to test its short-term 20-day moving average (DMA) on Monday.
The market made a flat start, but in a rangebound and volatile session, it continued to gradually decline throughout the day.
The index finally ended with a loss of 67.65 points or 0.56 per cent at 12,045.80. The headline index has confirmed its lower top near the 12,250 level, as it slipped further below the 50-DMA, which is at 12,132.
As of Monday’s session, the index has ended a notch below the short-term 20-DMA level, which is at 12,059. The F-O data showed long unwinding from higher levels, while volatility again resurfaced, as India VIX spiked 5.88 per cent to 14.42. The broad technical setup stayed weak on the charts.
The 12,080 and 12,125 levels will act as resistance, while support may come in at 12,000 and 11,965. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart was at 47.77 and stayed neutral, showing no divergence against the price.
The daily MACD was bullish and traded above its signal line.
However, the slope of the histogram is declining, which reflects the deceleration in the momentum. BCCL - Non CopyrightAs per pattern analysis of the daily chart, the short-term 20-DMA has crossed below the 50-DMA, indicating loss of momentum in the near term. If Nifty bounces back above the 20-DMA, we will see upsides remaining capped near the 50-DMA. The market will continue to remain weak, if the headline index fails to take support at its 20-DMA on a closing basis. The US markets will be shut on Monday on account of President’s Day and Dalal Street will not have any overnight cues to deal with. Keeping the present technical setup in view, which is predominantly weak, we would recommend traders to continue to approach the market on a highly cautious note. (Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of Gemstone Equity Research - Advisory Services, Vadodara.
He can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots.
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