India recorded 96,424 new coronavirus infections on September 18, taking its cumulative tally to 5.21 million.
The country has been jolted by the highest single-day caseload in the world since early August.We may overtake the US in the coming weeks as the country with most infections (not deaths).By September 18, 84,372 people in India, which has consistently reported over 1,000 Covid-19 deaths every day, had died of the highly contagious disease.SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes coronavirus diseases or Covid-19 has wrecked the Indian economy and triggered a wave of mental health problems.
Activities like schools, cinema halls and international flights remain shut till date.Globally, coronavirus cases have exceeded 30 million, including 1 million deaths, and the pandemic is showing no signs of slowing.So, the biggest question on most people's minds is: when and how will this once-in-a-century health crisis end?HOW PANDEMICS USUALLY ENDLet's first examine this fundamental question.
A pandemic may have three kinds of epilogues.1.
Medical: when the infection doesn't spread anymore and there are no more patients or deaths.2.
Social: when people exhaust their anxieties and reach the stage of 'jo hoga, dekha jayega' or begin to accept the new normal while following safety protocols.
This is already happening.3.
A third type: when the government feels that everything that had to be done to end the pandemic has been done.Here's a piece from the past, for perspective.
The deadliest pandemic in modern history, Spanish flu, caused 500 million infections in three waves that led to 50 million deaths around the world between 1918 and 1920.
The flu virus evolved into a far less deadly seasonal bug.
Endemic, but manageable.HOW THE ENDING IS ACHIEVEDWhile lockdowns are expected to localise the disease, measures like hand hygiene, masking and physical distancing can only slow its transmission.Of course, contact tracing, isolation, tests and treatment are extremely crucial to save lives and minimise disruption, but finding a long-term solution is a different ballgame.Herd immunity is what everyone is looking at.
It is assumed to kick in, for a certain period of time, bringing the outbreak under control, only when about 60 per cent of the population is vaccinated (or infected).Good news: there's a strong possibility that India, like many nations, is undercounting its Covid-19 cases.
If that's the case, there is herd immunity greater than the current assessment may suggest.Bad news: The "herd immunity through infection" assumption may not be fully correct.
Even the terrible outbreaks in New York City and London didn't lead to adequate immunity.SO, WHEN WILL THE PANDEMIC END?This is the tough one.
There have been multiple, contradictory predictions.In May, the World Health Organization (WHO) chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan predicted that it would take four to five years before the pandemic was under control.In August, WHO head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the pandemic might end within two years.Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has now said that the pandemic would be over by the end of 2021.WHEN IS THE VACCINE COMING?Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan informed Parliament on Thursday that a Covid-19 vaccine might be developed by early 2021, but it would take time in making it available to the public in large quantities.
And that's a tricky area."People must maintain hand hygiene, physical distancing and wear masks till then.
Cases are rising but the rise is mostly because of increased testing," a senior official of the Union Ministry of Health - Family Welfare told India Today.As per an optimistic assessment, India will have mass vaccination by late 2021.
But everyone is not as optimistic.
Swaminathan has predicted that there won't be enough vaccines for life to return fully to normal until 2022.Adar Poonawalla, chief executive of the Serum Institute of India, the world's largest vaccine manufacturer, has "more bad news." Not enough Covid-19 vaccines will be available for everyone in the world to be inoculated until the end of 2024 at the earliest, he has told the Financial Times.THE VACCINE CHALLENGES"Even safe, effective, affordable and available-to-all vaccines may not offer permanent immunity.
We may require regular vaccination," the Union Ministry of Health - Family Welfare official told India Today.Swaminathan had said in May itself that a vaccine seems, for now, the best way out but it's no silver bullet.United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also delivered a warning on Thursday.
"Many pin their hopes on a vaccine, but let's be clear: there is no panacea in a pandemic.
A vaccine alone cannot solve this crisis; certainly not in the near term," he said.He said authorities need to massively expand new and existing tools that can respond to new cases and provide vital treatment to suppress transmission and save lives, especially over the next 12 months.Experts also say virus mutations could make a vaccine ineffective.
After all, there are vaccines for more than a dozen of human viruses, but only smallpox has been eradicated.The H1N1 "swine" flu broke out in 2009.
But it hasn't gone away.
One just hopes and prays that corona does go, and doesn't become an endemic!