The Brazilian stock market experienced a significant decline on Friday, December 13, with the Ibovespa index dropping 1.13% to close at 124,612.22 points.This loss amounted to 1,429.99 points, marking a total weekly decline of 1.06%.
The day was particularly ominous for those who suffer from paraskevidekatriaphobia, the fear of Friday the 13th.The markets performance confirmed their worst fears.
The currency exchange also faced challenges, with the commercial dollar rising by 0.43% to R$6.03.The Central Bank attempted to intervene through an auction but only managed to slow the dollars rise, which had been climbing at over 1.1%.
Additionally, future interest rates (DIs) surged across the board, approaching 15%, reflecting broader economic concerns.The economic backdrop remains troubling, primarily due to fiscal issues.
The Ministry of Finances Fiscal Prism report highlighted increased worries about public debt levels.Brazilian Stock Market Plummets: Ibovespa Drops 1.13% on Friday.
(Photo Internet reproduction)While economists revised upward their forecasts for the governments primary balance in 2024 and 2025, they also raised projections for gross public debt as a percentage of GDP for next year.As President Lula recuperates from health issues, the fiscal package has yet to be addressed by Congress, which is currently focused on tax reform discussions in the Senate.Economic Resilience Amidst ChallengesDespite these political challenges, there are signs of economic resilience.
Preliminary GDP data for October indicated a strong start to the fourth quarter of 2024.The IBC-Br index exceeded market expectations, supporting a projected economic growth rate of approximately 3.5% for the year.
Economist Rodolfo Margato from XP noted a substantial increase in retail sales and service revenues.He stated that this combination of economic activity data suggests strong GDP growth by year-end.
His estimates indicate a 0.7% expansion in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.Additionally, there was a significant 4.4% increase compared to the same period last year.
This positive outlook has boosted retailer confidence to its highest level since February 2023.Globally, major indices in New York remained stable while European markets closed mixed amid cautious sentiment ahead of an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting that may lead to interest rate adjustments.On the Brazilian stock exchange, few stocks managed to escape the downturn.
Vale (VALE3) marked its fourth consecutive decline with a drop of 1.50%.
Petrobras (PETR4) fell by 0.63%, amidst considerable volatility.
Banks also suffered losses exceeding 1%.Retailers attempted to maintain some optimism but ultimately succumbed to market pressures.
Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) dropped by 2.15%, Assa (ASAI3) fell by 5.12%, and Carrefour (CRFB3) declined by 5.02%.An exception was GPA (PCAR3), which rebounded by 4.87% amid rumors of a potential merger with Dia.
Embraer (EMBR3) showed some resilience, trading positively most of the day before closing up by 0.36%.Analysts see potential for further gains following an impressive performance in 2024 with over a 150% increase.
Looking ahead, next week promises to be eventful as Congress aims to finalize key legislation before its recess.If they fail to do so, critical decisions will be postponed until February when elections for leadership positions will take precedence.
Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Reserves interest rate decision, which adds another layer of uncertainty to an already complex financial landscape in Brazil.