Brazils Central Bank reported a current account deficit of $2.25 billion in March 2025.
This figure comes after a volatile start to the year, with Februarys deficit reaching $8.76 billion.The March result reflects a rebound in Brazils trade surplus, which rose 13.8% year-on-year to $8.15 billion.
Exports grew 5.5% to $29.18 billion, driven by a 10.1% jump in manufactured goods and a 16% surge in agricultural shipments.Imports increased 2.6%, led by manufacturing and agricultural goods.
Despite the strong trade surplus, Brazils external accounts show underlying weaknesses.The services deficit widened, and foreign direct investment (FDI) dropped to $5.99 billion in March, its lowest in three months and well below Februarys $9.3 billion.Over the first quarter, FDI inflows failed to fully offset the current account gap, highlighting a shift from previous years when foreign capital consistently covered external shortfalls.Brazils External Balances Worsen Despite Strong Export Performance.
(Photo Internet reproduction)Official projections for 2025 expect the current account deficit to reach $62 billion, or 2.8% of GDP.
This outlook factors in slower export growth, rising imports of capital and intermediate goods, and a larger services deficit.The Central Bank anticipates FDI inflows of $70 billion, but notes increased risks from global trade tensions and softer commodity prices.
Brazils foreign reserves remain robust, offering a buffer against external shocks.However, the narrowing margin between FDI and the current account deficit signals a more fragile external position.
Business leaders and investors now face a landscape where Brazils trade strength must balance against persistent service and income outflows.The countrys ability to sustain capital inflows will shape its economic stability through 2025.