President Vladimir Putins grip on Russia has endured another turbulent year marked byhumiliating Ukrainian incursion, the overthrow of Syrias Bashar al-Assad, skyrocketing food prices, Kremlin critic Alexei Navalnys death in prison and a terrorist attack in Moscow that killed nearly 150 people.Twenty-five years since assuming power after Boris Yeltsins surprise resignation on New Years Eve in 1999, Putin remains embroiled in his war against Ukraine a conflict he has leveraged to dramatically reshape Russian society and eliminate virtually all remaining opposition.In March, the 72-year-old was re-elected for a fifth term with no meaningful competition, cementing his reign for another six years.However, as the events of 2024 have shown, the war in Ukraine is depleting the Kremlins resources at an accelerating pace.
Behind the imposing facade of Putins Russia lies an often-brittle structure.Domestic politicsPutin was declared the winner of Russias presidential election in March, extending his presidency for another six years.
While official figures cited a record 87% of votes cast in his favor, independent monitors reported widespread fraud including over20 million anomalous votes.Despite the Kremlins claims of unprecedented support, the election was overshadowed by the sudden death of Putins main political rival, Alexei Navalny, in an Arctic penal colony weeks before the vote.
Navalnys widow Yulia Navalnaya directly blamed Putin for his death and galvanized thousands to hold silent protests at voting stations.Days after the election, gunmen opened fireat a rock concert outside Moscow, killing 145 people and wounding hundreds more.
The Crocus City Hall attack, which was claimed by the Islamic State, would become the deadliestattack in Russia in two decades.Meanwhile, the government intensified its crackdown on dissent, targeting private communication channels amid fears of covert criticism.
Independent messaging platforms such as Signal, Discord and Viber were banned, with threats looming overWhatsApp andVPN services.
By December, Russia had effectively blocked access to YouTube, further isolating Russians from uncensored information.Dissatisfaction has also simmered in traditionally pro-Kremlin factions.
Wives and mothers of mobilized soldiers demanded the return of their loved ones from the front line, challenging the prolonged conscription of men drafted in the fall of 2022.
The authorities escalated repressions in response,declaring some protesters as foreign agents.Regional tensions flared as well.
The North Caucasus republic of Dagestan saw anti-Israeli riots and deadly attacks on Orthodox churches and synagogues, while mass protestsagainst an activists jailing in the republic of Bashkortostan were forcibly quelled.
In the Kursk region, where foreign forces occupied Russian territory for the first time since World War II, residents displaced by Ukraines incursiongrew increasingly frustrated with the governments lack of solutions.During Putins annual end-of-year press conference, he avoided a direct response to questions about when Kursk residents could return to their homes.When asked whether he had fulfilled Yeltsins directive to preserve Russia, Putin replied:I believe I have not only preserved Russia but also steered it away from the brink of an abyss.
I have ensured that Russia remains an independent, sovereign power capable of making decisions in its own interests.However, according to a November survey by the Russian Field research group, the share of Russians supporting peace talks or the immediate signing of a peace agreement with Ukrainereached its highest level since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, with79% of respondents saying they would support Putin's decision to sign a peace agreement.Foreign policyRussias full-scale invasion of Ukraine continued to dominate both domestic and foreign policy, consuming vast economic resources.
By December, cracks in the Kremlins global ambitions became increasingly evident.Despite years of investment and hundreds of millions of dollars funneled into propping up Bashar al-Assads regime the Syrian leader was overthrown, throwing Russias regional influence into uncertainty.
Moscow risks losing its military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim critical footholds in the Middle East along with its claim to being a global power capable of projecting influence far beyond its borders.This setback also undermines Russias operations in Africa, as Moscows Syrian bases served as logistical hubs for Wagner Group mercenaries and theiraffiliateson the continent.The Kremlin is pinning its hopes on a potentialresetwith Washington when President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated in January.Although Moscow sees an opportunity to negotiate a resolution to the war in Ukraine, Putins proposed terms Ukrainian neutrality, a ban on Western arms supplies, a drastically reduced Ukrainian military and recognition of Russias annexation of Crimea and occupied Ukrainian territories remain unacceptable to Kyiv.Exiled former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov cautioned against overconfidence in Trump, however.Putins attempt to secure a victory through Trump could backfire, he warned during aninterview with the independent broadcaster Dozhd.
Trumps impulsiveness might lead to increased U.S.
support for Ukraine instead of the de-escalation Putin seeks.Should this scenario unfold, the risk of further escalation looms, potentially setting the stage for an even more volatile 2025.EconomyRussias economy faced growing challenges in 2024 as its war in Ukraine drained its resources.
While GDP growth is expected to reach 4% this year, it is expected to slow to under 1.5% in 2025.
High inflation and interest rates near 20% are squeezing businesses and households, while defense spending which stands at over 8% of GDP, a post-Soviet record is pulling resources from civilian sectors and slowing economic growth, according to independent outlet The Bell.Labor shortages, with unemployment at just 2.3%, are pushing wages higher, outpacing inflation and productivity.
Corporate borrowing grew by 16.4% this year despite high interest rates, but most industries are stagnating.
Sectors linked to military production are the only ones to show significant growth, with others held back by sanctions and a lack of workers.Sanctions are hitting harder, with new EU and U.S.
measures set to raise costs further in 2025.
The ruble remains weak and volatile, and authorities have limited tools to stabilize it, as much of Russias reserves are frozen.
Rising inequality and slowing growth risk fueling public discontent in the coming years.The Russian economy in 2025 will be fragile.
Money is available to wage war in 2025, business generally remains optimistic.
The projected 0.5% budget deficit is manageable, albeit expensive, Alexander Kolyandr, a non-resident senior scholar at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and the co-author of The Bells economic assessment, told The Moscow Times.
But the risks are growing.
Stagflation is ever more visible.