Donald Trumps return to the United States presidency has raised hopes that an end to Russias three-year war on Ukraine or at least a ceasefire may be on the horizon, even as many experts doubt his ability to deliver on his promises to end the war.While the Kremlin signals readiness for talks, it will demand concessions from Ukraine widely seen as unattainable fueling speculation that Russia seeks to prolong the conflict, which shifted in its favor in 2024.Meanwhile, with Ukraine losing ground on the battlefield, Kyiv faces mounting pressure from allies to show flexibility in its conditions for peace.Whether Trump will de-escalate the conflict or merely deepen divisions remains to be seen.This is where the three parties stand:Defeats at the front force Zelensky to consider concessionsUkraines goal is to obtain security guarantees from the United States and to end the war with Russia this year, President Volodymyr Zelensky told Italys Rainews24 broadcaster this month, voicing hope that Washington would put pressure on the Kremlin.Zelenskys recent remarks are a far cry from his rhetoric earlier in the war.
In mid-2022, when Ukraine had effectively stalled Russias advance, he banned negotiations with President Vladimir Putin.Since then, the battlefield dynamic has turned, with Ukraines summer 2023 counteroffensive falling short of expectations, and Russia making steady gains in 2024.
Even Kyivs incursion into the Kursk region failed to halt Moscows advance in Donetsk.Ukrainian political analyst Petro Oleshchuk said Kyivs change in rhetoric reflects its diminished negotiating position, even as it has stepped up attacks on oil depots, factories and military targets inside Russia.Painful blows to Russian infrastructure will serve as arguments in negotiations, Oleshchuk told The Moscow Times, but these measures are unlikely to carry decisive weight without stabilizing the front lines.In October, Zelensky presented his Victory Plan to the Ukrainian parliament that outlined Kyivs negotiating stance:A formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO;Strengthening defense capabilities, including permission to strike Russian territory with Western weapons and enhancing air defense systems;Creating a system of non-nuclear deterrence against Russia;Attracting Western investors to Ukraine and increasing sanctions on Russia;Deploying Ukrainian troops in Europe post-war to reduce reliance on United States forces.Oleshchuk said Zelenskys Victory Plan is unrealistic given Trumps apparent readiness to reject Ukraines NATO membership and make concessions to Russia and the plans reliance on Western allies.Ukraine's approach to negotiations appears to be edging toward compromise.Formally, Kyiv rejects the idea of ceding territory, but it is reportedly considering abandoning military efforts to restore territorial integrity if it receives security guarantees in exchange, according to the Financial Times.Zelenskys recent acknowledgment that Ukraine lacks the strength to retake Crimea and the Donbas by force further highlights this pragmatic shift.However, experts interviewed by The Moscow Times believe the wars end hinges more on the Kremlins position than Ukraines.
Yet Moscow appears to be in no rush to stop hostilities and insists on demands Kyiv cannot accept.Putin's demands: New territories and NATO exclusionSince the start of the invasion, Russia has avoided clearly defining its war goals, instead citing vague terms such as the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine.However, Putin did articulate specific demands for peace negotiations in June 2024:Ukraine must fully withdraw its forces from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, allowing Russia to secure its territorial gains and take military control over additional areas.Kyiv must officially abandon its NATO membership aspirations.The status of Crimea, Sevastopol and other annexed territories in eastern Ukraine as Russia must be recognized in international treaties.Sanctions against Russia must be lifted.He claimed that Moscow would be ready to negotiate tomorrow and would immediately order a ceasefire if Kyiv began withdrawing its troops.Many experts are highly skeptical of Putins willingness to end hostilities or make compromises.Political analyst Vladimir Fesenko told The Moscow Times that Russias demands are more likely to be a negotiating ploy than genuine preconditions.The continuation of the war alongside parallel negotiations seems more likely.
A ceasefire agreement may become possible when a military stalemate arises, and both sides recognize that victory is impossible, Fesenko said.Yet the front lines show no signs of such a stalemate.Over the past year, Russian forces have captured more than 2,660 square kilometers, an area slightly bigger than the size of Moscow several times more than it seized in 2023.Its forces are now closing in on the vital logistics hub of Pokrovsk which, if captured, could open a path to controlling all of the Donetsk region and is nearing the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, which has so far been untouched by the hostilities.Putin and the Kremlin have also stated that negotiations will only begin after the Kursk region is fully returned to Russian control.
As a result, hostilities will continue, and the issue of military actions in the Kursk region may become another obstacle to starting negotiations, Fesenko said.The chances of ending the war by 2025 are slim, agreed political scientist Mikhail Komin, a visiting researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations.The Kremlin wants Ukraine to be a weak state susceptible to pressure through force, while Kyiv seeks guarantees to prevent another invasion, he said.Putin sees his historical mission as ensuring a loyal government in Ukraine.
His goal for 2025 is to maintain pressure on the battlefield and possibly negotiate additional advantages for Russia, such as lifting some sanctions or reaching agreements with Trump on other issues, Komin said.Trumps ambitions and their impact on UkraineDespite his pledges to end the war within 24 hours, Trump has yet to detail exactly how he plans to do so.Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko expressed skepticism over whether there will be any plan at all.Many who have studied Trumps actions note that he negotiates intuitively, without a pre-established strategy, Fesenko said.
So far, weve only seen a collection of ideas.
Its not a peace plan but a set of proposals Trumps team will promote, some of which are quite specific.A set of negotiation points allegedly prepared by Trumps team and leaked in November by The Wall Street Journal and Reuters entails:Freezing the front lines at their current positions;A 20-year suspension of Ukraines NATO membership;Establishing a demilitarized zone with European peacekeepers;Continued United States arms deliveries to Ukraine to deter Russia.No further details about the plan have since emerged, leaving experts to speculate about whose side Trump might favor to expedite an end to the war.Komin said he believes Trump will act based on who is stronger at the time.Trumps formula for peace wont meet the criteria for a fair resolution.
Its likely to reflect a realpolitik approach, closer to Putins stance might makes right, he suggested.He said Trump may try to initiate a peace process through phone calls and meetings with Ukrainian and Russian leaders but doubts it will yield results due to both sides unwillingness to compromise.Komin noted that although Trumps proposals may favor Russia over Ukraine, European leaders are unlikely to let Ukraine be excluded from negotiations with Moscow.Trumps cabinet appointments offer clues about the new White Houses approach to Ukraine.
His incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has criticized Russias invasion but previously voted against financial and military aid to Ukraine.This month, Waltz said plans for talks between Trump and Putin were already underway and that a call could take place in the coming days or weeks.Everyone knows this has to end diplomatically.
I just dont think its realistic to say well push every Russian out of every inch of Ukrainian territory, Waltz said.Senator Marco Rubio, who has argued for ending the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible, is set to become the next Secretary of State.
Trumps controversial pick for Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, has voiced sympathetic views toward Russia, including justifying its concerns over Ukraines NATO membership at the start of the invasion.Political analyst Oleshchuk said that while many Trump appointees have criticized United States aid to Ukraine, most have little influence over United States foreign policy.He underscored that figures like Waltz and Trumps special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, advocate for ending the war and support Ukraines armament but do not see reclaiming occupied territories including Crimea as a realistic goal.Trump clearly sees no point in defending Ukraines territorial integrity, but that doesnt mean he wants to hand the country over to Russia or accept defeat in Ukraine, Oleshchuk said.A Message from The Moscow Times:Dear readers,We are facing unprecedented challenges.
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