Brazil

The Brazilian real is trading at R$ 5.74 per US dollar as of this morning, maintaining the strength demonstrated at yesterdays close.Fridays session ended with the dollar retreating 0.98% to R$ 5.7433, marking the third consecutive day of decline against the Brazilian currency.On a weekly basis, the greenback lost 0.81% against the real, reflecting improved sentiment toward emerging market currencies.The dollar weakened against the real yesterday amid rising risk appetite globally, primarily driven by expectations of new economic stimulus measures in China.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.12% to 103.704 points by late Friday afternoon.Brazilian Real Extends Rally as Dollar Falls for Third Consecutive Day March 15, 2025.
(Photo Internet reproduction)Domestic Fiscal FactorsMarket participants reacted positively to unexpected improvements in Brazils public debt figures.
According to Central Bank data, Brazils gross public debt as a percentage of GDP decreased to 75.3% in January, below the previous months 76.1% and economists forecasts of 76.2%.The surprisingly positive debt numbers are giving investors more confidence in Brazils fiscal trajectory, providing substantial support for the real, said Carlos Monteiro, chief economist at Banco Ita.
This creates a more favorable backdrop for the Central Banks inflation-fighting efforts.The record primary surplus of R$ 104.096 billion ($17.35 billion) in January also contributed to improved sentiment toward Brazilian assets.
This fiscal outperformance exceeded market expectations of R$ 102.135 billion ($17.02 billion).Trading Volumes and FlowsTrading volumes remained robust throughout Fridays session, with approximately $8.2 billion in spot market transactions.
Foreign exchange-traded funds tracking the Brazilian real saw modest inflows of approximately $45 million over the past week, according to market data providers.Were seeing renewed interest from international investors in Brazilian assets, particularly following the positive fiscal data, noted Marina Silva, FX strategist at XP Investimentos.
The currency market has been responding to improved fundamentals rather than short-term speculative flows.Technical AnalysisFrom a technical perspective, the USD/BRL pair has broken below the important support level of R$ 5.80, which now becomes resistance.The currency pair is trading near the lower end of its 2025 range, with the years low point of R$ 5.6892 (recorded on February 18) representing the next significant support level.The technical picture has turned decidedly bearish for the dollar against the real, said Rafael Campos, technical analyst at BTG Pactual.With three consecutive days of decline and a clean break below R$ 5.80, we could see further dollar weakness toward the R$ 5.65 level if current momentum continues.External Factors and CommoditiesThe Brazilian real has gained support from the positive performance of commodities, with iron ore and Brent crude oil prices advancing more than 1% on Friday amid expectations of Chinese stimulus measures.
As a major commodity exporter, Brazil tends to benefit from rising commodity prices.The anticipated stimulus package from China is providing significant tailwinds for commodity currencies like the real, explained Joo Fernandes, chief market strategist at Bradesco.With iron ore and agricultural exports being key components of Brazils trade balance, the improved outlook for commodities is translating directly into real strength.Federal Reserve and US Political DevelopmentsIn the United States, investors are awaiting the Federal Reserves policy meeting next week, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the 4.25% to 4.50% range.
Recent weaker-than-expected US inflation data has supported this view.Additionally, political developments in Washington saw progress on avoiding a government shutdown, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer indicating support for a Republican measure to fund the government through September.Outlook and ExpectationsAnalysts remain cautiously optimistic about the reals near-term prospects.
BNP Paribas Wealth Management has maintained its 3-month target for USD/BRL at 5.80 but revised its 12-month target to 6.00, suggesting potential longer-term pressures on the Brazilian currency.While weve seen significant strength in the real recently, fiscal uncertainties surrounding the 2025 budget could introduce volatility in coming weeks, cautioned Ana Botn, emerging markets analyst at Santander.The postponement of the budget vote to April creates a longer window of uncertainty that could temporarily weigh on the currency.The Brazilian Congresss decision to delay the vote on the 2025 budget until April, alongside discussions about a R$ 7.7 billion ($1.28 billion) reduction in the Bolsa Famlia program, will remain key factors for market participants to monitor in the coming weeks.Brazilian Real Extends Rally as Dollar Falls for Third Consecutive Day March 15, 2025






Unlimited Portal Access + Monthly Magazine - 12 issues


Contribute US to Start Broadcasting - It's Voluntary!


ADVERTISE


Merchandise (Peace Series)

 


Brazil’s Religious Transformation Leaves Lula’s Workers’ Party Behind


Football Games for Saturday, March 15, 2025: Match Schedule and Live Broadcast


Apple Brings Real-Time Translation to AirPods with iOS 19


Brazil’s 40 Years of Democracy Shows Disappointing Economic Performance


[Brazil] - Brazilian Real Extends Rally as Dollar Falls for Third Consecutive Day-- March 15, 2025


Market Sentiment Shifts: Bitcoin Fear Index Improves as Crypto Cap Reaches $2.84 Trillion


[Brazil] - Ibovespa Surges to Year's High as Vale and Magazine Luiza Lead 2.64% Rally


Africa Daily Brief: Continental News Roundup for March 14, 2025


Bolivia’s Fuel Crisis Pushes Economy to Brink as Farmers Sound Alarm


Africa Daily Brief: Continental News Roundup for March 13, 2025


Asia Daily Brief: Comprehensive News Roundup for March 13, 2025


Closed Doors: How U.S. Policies Might Impact Persecuted Christians


UAE Aluminum Exports Surge as Trump's Tariffs Reshape Global Trade


Armenia and Azerbaijan Finalize Peace Deal to End Four-Decade Conflict


Colombia's Cartagena Hosts Major International Editors Congress Focused on A.I.Cartagena will


U.S. Commerce Secretary Praises UK and Mexico While Warning Retaliatory Trade Partners


Colombian Housing Market Shows Revival Despite Construction Slowdown


Mulino Revisits $10 Billion First Quantum Mine Closure in Panama


Smart Fit Sees 71% Profit Drop While Revenue Climbs 36% in Q4


Chile Leads at 40th: Latin America’s Uneven Performance in Global Opportunity Index


IMF Set to Evaluate Ecuador’s Economic Targets for Third $4 Billion Loan Disbursement


Economic Collapse Pushes 86% of Venezuelan Households into Poverty


Tuberculosis Crisis Engulfs Ecuador’s Prison System


[Brazil] - LATAM Airlines Posts 3.1% Traffic Growth in February as International Routes Shine


Bank of Canada Cuts Rates to 2.75% as Trump Tariffs Bite Economy


Trade Without Dollars: Brazil’s Blockchain Plan for BRICS Nations


Trump Moves to Add Copper to Metal Tariff List, Prices Surge


[Brazil] - Brazil Energy Prices Triple as New Drought Risk Model Takes Effect


[Brazil] - Amazon Deforestation Hits Record Low in February While Degradation Threatens Rainforest


Gold Holds Steady at $2,916 Ahead of Key U.S. Inflation Data


Real Finds Footing at R$5.81 Despite Flat Industrial Production Data


Crypto Market Pulse: March 12, 2025-- Recovery and Volatility


[Brazil] - Trade Tensions Drive Ibovespa Lower as Technical Signals Flash Warning


Greenland Votes Amid Trump’s Territorial Ambitions and Independence Dreams


RFK Jr. Delivers Ultimatum to U.S. Food Giants: Remove Artificial Dyes Now


Mexico Tourism Surges Past Pre-Pandemic Levels with Strong 2025 Outlook


Trump Administration Secures Ukrainian Agreement to Full Ceasefire Plan


Dalai Lama Declares Next Spiritual Leader Will Be Born Outside China


Von der Leyen Pushes EU Defense Spending Above 3% as Time of Illusions Ends


Nasdaq Sinks 4% in Historic Drop, Fuels Bear Market Concerns


Global Oil Market Trends and Analysis for March 11, 2025


Cryptocurrency Market Report: March 11, 2025, morning


Global Gold Market Update: March 11, 2025


Brazilian Real Under Pressure: USD Gains Amid Recession Fears – March 11, 2025


Brazilian Stock Market Report for March 10, 2025


Democracy Unraveled: Inside Romania's Electoral Coup Against Calin Georgescu


U.S. and Paraguay Cement Anti-Drug Alliance as Trafficking Threats Rise


Guatemala Joins Global Effort to Combat Harmful Fishing Subsidies


Trump Expands Venezuela Sanctions to Force Out Foreign Oil Companies


[Brazil] - Wealth at the Top: Sheinbaum's $10 Million and Lula's $3.6 Million Dwarf Other LatAm Leaders


Chile's Inflation Eases to 4.7% in February, Central Bank Likely to Hold Rates


[Brazil] - Argentine Automotive Industry Shows Strong Signs of Recovery in 2025


Tariff Turmoil Drives U.S. Markets to Third Week of Losses as Recession Fears Grow


China’s Deflationary Spiral Deepens as Economic Troubles Mount


Brazil’s B3 Stock Market Adjusts Trading Hours Following US Daylight Saving Time Change


Cuba’s Electricity Crisis Deepens: 40% of Island Faces Daily Blackouts


Tariffs on Mexico and Canada Could Rise Further


Trump Administration Offers $25,000 Buyouts to HHS Employees


Mexican Inflation Ticks Up to 3.77% in February as Rate Cut Looms


Trump’s Financial Pressure Pushes Universities Toward Traditional Values Reset


Fed in No Rush to Change U.S. Interest Rates, Powell States


Crypto Market Turmoil: Volatility Spikes Amid Regulatory Uncertainty – March 8, 2025


[Brazil] - Ibovespa Extends Winning Streak to Third Consecutive Session-- March 7, 2025


Petro's Popularity Plummets Amid Guerrilla Violence and Cabinet Turmoil


Lebanon’s Reconstruction Costs Estimated at $11 Billion Following Israel-Hezbollah War


Brazil’s Growth Profile Shifts Dramatically from External to Domestic Demand


Putin Offers Conditional Ukraine Truce as Trump Threatens Russia with Sanctions


Mexico Turns Against China: Sheinbaum's Tariff Plan Fulfills Trump's Fortress Vision