(Analysis) As military dissent and economic failures pile up in China, analysts question whether Xi still commands the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) and whether both the U.S.
and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can coexistor if one must fall.A senior Chinese generals disappearance in March 2025 lays bare Xi Jinpings crumbling control, thrusting China into an existential showdown with the United States.Far beyond a trade war, this clash fuses economic might, geopolitical dominance, and national security, with Xis centralized power now his greatest weakness.Xis rise to absolute power began in 2012 as CCP General Secretary, when he inherited a system balancing decisions across the Politburo.
He dismantled this, purging over 1.3 million officials by 2016 through an anti-corruption campaign that targeted rivals.Declared the Partys core in 2016, Xi embedded his political doctrine in the CCP constitution by 2017, a status rivaling Mao Zedongs.
His 2022 third term, breaking decades of precedent, filled top posts with loyalists.As PLA commander-in-chief, Xi reorganized military structures to ensure allegiance.
This consolidation eliminated shared accountability, leaving Xi solely responsible for Chinas triumphsand its mounting crises.Xis Unraveling Authority Ignites a U.S.-China Fight for Survival General He Weidong.
(Photo Internet reproduction)While Xis purges have removed many rivals, recent analysis shows his power is not absolute.
The PLA retains a degree of autonomy, and Xi has had to respect certain boundaries to maintain military support.This partial autonomy, combined with recurring corruption scandals, has limited Xis ability to enforce discipline and ensure unwavering loyalty among senior officers.Economic Woes Pin Failures on Xis Rigid RuleThe recent disappearance of General He Weidong, a Xi ally, since March 2025, is not an isolated event.
It follows the removal of a senior admiral in November 2024 and nine Rocket Force generals in December 2023.These purges, targeting even Xis loyalists, reflect not only anti-corruption motives but also intense factional struggles within the PLA.Recent waves of purges have focused on Xis own support bases, the Shaanxi Gang and Fujian Clique, likely eroding his authority over the military.Some observers now believe that Vice-Chairman Zhang Youxia, not Xi, may have orchestrated the latest naval purges, signaling that Xis control over the military is far from absoluteSince July 2023, the PLAs main publication has pushed collective leadership, a subtle jab at Xis dominance.These purges, hitting even loyalists, point to factionalism, with reports suggesting Xis rivals may orchestrate removals to undermine him.Military Unrest Deepens the CracksThe leadership disruption is expected to result in loyalty-based appointments, impair the PLAs combat effectiveness, and generate insecurity among officers, weakening morale and operational readiness.Despite these setbacks, the PLA continues to make progress on modernization targets for 2027 and 2035, especially in regional disputes and preparations for a potential Taiwan conflict.Xis reforms have yielded some results, but persistent corruption and purges have undermined trust and operational cohesion.In 2025, those crises overwhelm.
Despite a $295.4 billion trade surplus with the U.S.
in 2024, Chinas economy reels from a collapsed property sector, deflation, and 15.3% youth unemployment.The chaotic 2022 end of the Zero Covid policy sparked economic turmoil, while crackdowns on private firms crushed innovation.
Local government debt reached $13 trillion in 2024, and exports waned under U.S.
tariffs.A projected 5% growth for 2025 is doubted, as analysts note Xis focus on control stifles adaptability.
Public frustration grows, pinning these failures directly on Xis rigid leadership.Despite official Q1 2025 GDP growth of 5.4%, much of this was driven by a pre-tariff rush as exporters raced to beat U.S.
tariff hikes.Analysts warn this momentum is unlikely to last, given weak household demand, deflationary pressures, and a property market still in decline.Chinas urban unemployment rate stands at 5.3%, but youth unemployment is much higher, fueling social tension.Foreign investment continues to dwindle, and Chinas 10-year bond yield has plunged to record lows, signaling investor skepticism.Xis policy response has relied on limited supply-side stimulus and ideological discipline, but these measures have failed to restore confidence or reverse the downward spiral in investment and consumption.The CCP has even threatened to punish economists for warning of economic risks, indicating deepening insecurity at the topU.S.
Tariffs Exploit Chinas Existential WeaknessThe U.S.
seizes this vulnerability, wielding its 30% share of global consumer spending to reshape trade.
Tariffs, peaking at 245% on Chinese electric vehicles, target Chinas surplus and transshipment through Vietnam.Over 130 countries, including Japan, negotiate U.S.
market access, sidelining China.
Xis 125% retaliatory tariffs and rare earth export restrictions aim to strike back, but his refusal to negotiate reflects domestic pressuresyielding would signal defeat.The World Trade Organization warns that the global trade volume could contract by up to 1.5% due to these reciprocal tariffs, with the harshest impact on export-driven developing nations.U.S.
tariffs have already caused global supply chain disruptions, with the Yale Budget Lab estimating 740,000 U.S.
job losses by the end of 2025.While tariffs have hurt Chinas export sector, they have also triggered inflation and job losses in the U.S., raising questions about the sustainability of this strategy.Some analysts argue that both economies are more resilient than headline figures suggest, and a total decoupling remains unlikely in the near term.Security concerns, like Chinese drones over U.S.
bases and a California lab linked to biosecurity risks, heighten fears, casting the clash as a battle for survival.Chinas Trade War Gamble: Factories Shutter, Allies Turn, and Propaganda IntensifiesCan Both Survive or Must One Fall?This struggles existential core lies in the CCPs view of U.S.
democracy as a lethal threat.
A 2019 CCP editorial declared a Peoples War against the U.S., echoing Xis 2012 stance that Western systems are incompatible with Chinas model.The CCPs legitimacy depends on quashing dissent, but Xis economic and military setbacks erode this foundation.For the U.S., losing risks economic dependency, with 2.5 million jobs lost since Chinas 2001 WTO entry.
The U.S.
aims to revive industries, breaking Chinas hold on supply chains.Can both survive? Xis zero-sum ideology suggests only one can endure, as the CCP fears U.S.
values sparking reform.Yet, mutual economic tiesChinas need for U.S.
markets and U.S.
firms reliance on Chinese inputspoint to a possible stalemate.Europes indecision, leaning toward China while Japan aligns with the U.S., muddies coalition efforts.Trump faces domestic pressure, with 75% of Americans expecting tariff-driven price hikes in 2025.
Xi risks elite dissent, with purges revealing his fear of betrayal.Xis strategy now relies on perseverancemuddling through economic stagnation, doubling down on ideological discipline, and fomenting global chaos to distract adversaries and buy time.Yet, this approach is risky: if global crises stabilize, Western focus may return to Chinas vulnerabilities, further isolating Xi.
The CCP has even threatened to fire economists for warning of economic freefall, a sign of deepening insecurity at the top.Analysis: Xis centralization, intended to cement his rule, has instead tethered him to Chinas failures.
Purges, meant to secure loyalty, foster factionalism, potentially costing him PLA control.The U.S.s tariff strategy exploits these weaknesses, but success hinges on allied unity and economic resilience.The existential framing is valid: the CCPs ideological rigidity clashes with U.S.
influence, yet interdependence risks mutual harm.Neither may fall soon, but Xis unraveling authority tilts the balance toward U.S.
leverage, if it navigates challenges adeptly.Alarabiya-China-USA.mp4?#Size: 74.23 Mb