Still early days to make a forecast of Ukraine's impact on economy, Finance MinistryThe geo-political crisis is still evolving and these are early days to make a plausible forecast of its impact on India's economy in the year ahead, showed the Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review on Ukraine war's Impact.Western sanctions, including oil imports embargo on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine, has pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel, with crude costs jumping to multi-decade highs at one point.The review showed, the geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine triggered a massive turbulence in the global economy.
Within days, international prices of crude oil and other commodities shot upescalating the cost of India's import basket.Its impact on India's activity level in March, ifany, can be assessed only a month later, when high frequency data becomes available.However, with the activity levels in February not dampening, it is unlikely that actual GDPof 2021-22 will be different from the levels indicated in the second advance estimates, said the report.The geo-political crisis is still evolving and these are early days to make a plausible forecast of its impact on India's economy in the year ahead, the review added.