INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Childbirths did not increase as much as forecast since two-child policy
pressure on country's slowing economy.The world's most populous nation of some 1.4 billion for decades limited most families to one child in
an attempt to keep population growth sustainable.But since 2016 it has allowed couples to have two children in response to concerns about an
ageing society and shrinking workforce.The number of live births nationwide in 2018 fell by 2.5 million year-on-year, contrary to a
predicted increase of 790,000 births, according to analysis by US-based academic Yi Fuxian.Yi, a researcher at University of
Wisconsin-Madison, is a long-term critic of one-child policy and his work has previously gained traction among country's leadership.Enforced
through fines but notorious for cases of forced abortions and sterilisation, one-child policy caused birth rates to plummet after it was
introduced in 1979.However childbirths have not increased as much as forecast since two-child policy came into force and there has been
rising speculation government will further ease restrictions.Last year marked a "historic turning point for Chinese population", said Yi,
who studied publicly available data on births in towns and villages across China.This downward trend may be irreversible, he cautioned, due
to factors such as a decrease in number of women of childbearing age and reluctance of couples to have children due to rising education,
health and housing costs.Yi's calculations show that number of deaths in 2018 was about 11.58 million and total population shrank by 1.27
million."The Chinese population has started to decrease for first time since founding of New China in 1949, ageing problem has accelerated,
and economic vitality has weakened," he told AFP.Yi's findings, due to appear in an upcoming research paper co-authored with Peking
University economist Su Jian, were pieced together from National Health Commission figures.The experts also used other official statistics
including school enrolment figures, household registration data and government censuses to reach their conclusions.China's National Bureau
of Statistics is expected to release official nationwide birth figures for 2018 later this month.In meantime, data released by some local
authorities indicate a significant drop in births last year.In Qingdao, a city in eastern Shandong province -- one of China's most populous
regions -- births between January and November decreased by 21 percent to just over 81,000 compared to previous year.Ren Zeping, chief
economist at property developer Evergrande Group, wrote in a research note that China is walking into a "demographic crisis" as easing of
one-child policy has failed to boost country's fertility rate.Ageing crisisTracking China's demographic changes is difficult as figures
published by health commission and statistics bureau do not always match, said He Yafu, an independent demographer based in southern
Guangdong province.But he said Yi's estimate of drop in children born in 2018 is likely to be correct.The number of women of childbearing
age is expected to fall by more than 39 percent over next decade and China's two-child policy isn't enough to shore up dwindling birth
rates, He added.Yi said he was sceptical of National Bureau of Statistics figures, accusing organisation of "inflating number of births" to
account for families who may not have registered their second, third or fourth child.Local authorities seeking more funds from central
government have also "over-reported" school enrolment figures and hospital live births, he said.Yi added that statistics bureau may have
also under-reported number of deaths.In 2016, Yi was invited to speak at Boao Forum in southwest China, an annual gathering of influential
figures including politicians and businesspeople -- same year Beijing announced an end to its one-child rule.He is now urging government to
get out of people's bedrooms by scrapping two-child limit and offering more incentives including generous maternity leave and tax breaks for
parents.If government doesn't intervene now, "China's ageing crisis will be more severe than Japan, and economic outlook will be bleaker
than Japan", Yi said.China's labour force is becoming smaller as population greys, putting intense strain on country's fragile pension and
healthcare systems.For each elderly citizen, there are seven people who are working and contributing to social welfare system, Yi said -- a
figure set to shrink to just four by 2030."The US economy will not be overtaken by China, but by India, which has a younger population," he
headline, this story has not been edited by TheIndianSubcontinent staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
