INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Childbirths did not increase as much as forecast since two-child policy
pressure on country's slowing economy.The world's most populous nation of some 1.4 billion for decades limited most families to one
child in an attempt to keep population growth sustainable.But since 2016 it has allowed couples to have two children in response to concerns
about an ageing society and shrinking workforce.The number of live births nationwide in 2018 fell by 2.5 million year-on-year, contrary to a
predicted increase of 790,000 births, according to analysis by US-based academic Yi Fuxian.Yi, a researcher at University of
Wisconsin-Madison, is a long-term critic of one-child policy and his work has previously gained traction among country's
leadership.Enforced through fines but notorious for cases of forced abortions and sterilisation, one-child policy caused birth rates to
plummet after it was introduced in 1979.However childbirths have not increased as much as forecast since two-child policy came into force
and there has been rising speculation government will further ease restrictions.Last year marked a "historic turning point for Chinese
population", said Yi, who studied publicly available data on births in towns and villages across China.This downward trend may be
irreversible, he cautioned, due to factors such as a decrease in number of women of childbearing age and reluctance of couples to have
children due to rising education, health and housing costs.Yi's calculations show that number of deaths in 2018 was about 11.58 million
and total population shrank by 1.27 million."The Chinese population has started to decrease for first time since founding of New China in
1949, ageing problem has accelerated, and economic vitality has weakened," he told AFP.Yi's findings, due to appear in an upcoming
research paper co-authored with Peking University economist Su Jian, were pieced together from National Health Commission figures.The
experts also used other official statistics including school enrolment figures, household registration data and government censuses to reach
their conclusions.China's National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release official nationwide birth figures for 2018 later this
month.In meantime, data released by some local authorities indicate a significant drop in births last year.In Qingdao, a city in eastern
Shandong province -- one of China's most populous regions -- births between January and November decreased by 21 percent to just over
81,000 compared to previous year.Ren Zeping, chief economist at property developer Evergrande Group, wrote in a research note that China is
walking into a "demographic crisis" as easing of one-child policy has failed to boost country's fertility rate.Ageing crisisTracking
China's demographic changes is difficult as figures published by health commission and statistics bureau do not always match, said He
Yafu, an independent demographer based in southern Guangdong province.But he said Yi's estimate of drop in children born in 2018 is likely
to be correct.The number of women of childbearing age is expected to fall by more than 39 percent over next decade and China's two-child
policy isn't enough to shore up dwindling birth rates, He added.Yi said he was sceptical of National Bureau of Statistics figures, accusing
organisation of "inflating number of births" to account for families who may not have registered their second, third or fourth child.Local
authorities seeking more funds from central government have also "over-reported" school enrolment figures and hospital live births, he
said.Yi added that statistics bureau may have also under-reported number of deaths.In 2016, Yi was invited to speak at Boao Forum in
southwest China, an annual gathering of influential figures including politicians and businesspeople -- same year Beijing announced an end
to its one-child rule.He is now urging government to get out of people's bedrooms by scrapping two-child limit and offering more
incentives including generous maternity leave and tax breaks for parents.If government doesn't intervene now, "China's ageing crisis will
be more severe than Japan, and economic outlook will be bleaker than Japan", Yi said.China's labour force is becoming smaller as
population greys, putting intense strain on country's fragile pension and healthcare systems.For each elderly citizen, there are seven
people who are working and contributing to social welfare system, Yi said -- a figure set to shrink to just four by 2030."The US economy
decline, which will bring about a disastrous impact on global economy."(Except for headline, this story has not been edited by
TheIndianSubcontinent staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
