INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
NEW DELHI: Jobs data is important not only for the man on the Street, the ruling BJP or Opposition parties, but also to Dalal Street, which
implications in the form of the slowing growth of the middle class, global brokerage UBS said in a note.
FormalisationPayroll data shows
39.3 lakh jobs were created during the seven months ending March this year, out of which, 6,00,000 new jobs were created in March alone
actual job creation.
Economists say due to formalisation, organisations having less than 20 employees will count all these jobs as new
To that extent, the EPFO payroll data is only a rehash of existing jobs.
ECR (electronic challan cum return) data suggests some 28,627
establishments remitted their first ECRs during these seven months.
This number, is the proxy for existing organisations that migrated from
Hence, new employment (excluding formalisation) during September-March 2018 was 33.6 lakh (39.3 lakh net of 5.7 lakh)
jobs were created in FY18
The number though conflicts with a household survey-based BSE-CMIE index, which suggests far less job creation during the financial
year.
With less than a year left for the general election, the jobs data holds significance as the Opposition has been trying to corner the
Modi government for doing little to lift employment growth rate.
The EPFO number is a positive surprise to us and markets, said Gautam
Chhaochharia and Sanjena Dadawala, analysts at UBS Securities, India.
They believe the numbers are aided by a general formalisation trend
What the macro data suggestsDK Joshi, Director Chief Economist at CRISIL, said India does not really have any comprehensive data set to
which has not been doing well
Manufacturing has not grown in a material way
worsening job quality mix implies slowing growth of the middle class in the household income pyramid.
Mass market home appliances and
building materials may have some downside against what is being built in by Dalal Street
It will influence beneficiaries from accelerating upper-middle/high-income households include premium consumer discretionary
Staffing companies may, though, benefit from any shift of the informal workforce to formal setup, the brokerage said.
What is happening
globallyUS, which has 315 million population, creates 2.5 million new jobs every year
It has a 200 million working population, translating into a 1.2 per cent of eligible work force with an annual growth rate of 2.5 per
cent.
China, on the other hand, produces 15 million new jobs out of 780 million stock, which translates into 2 per cent eligible work force
with an annual growth rate of 6.5 per cent.
In conservative estimates, India has a 480-500 million eligible work force
If we exclude 45 per cent of those engaged in agricultural activity, the 264-275 million population still remains in manufacturing and
