INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
By Enda Curran, Alessandro Speciale and Michelle JamriskoThe global economy is showing the first signs of damage as a brewing trade war
rattles financial markets and hurts corporate confidence.
The escalating actions and threats between the U.S
and its major trading partners, including China and the European Union, pose one of the biggest threats to global growth
largest economy and a top global exporter, Germany would be particularly exposed to any trade slowdown
The Munich-based Ifo Economic Research Institute produces leading confidence indicators for the country and the euro area.
The measures so
and others would dent trade growth by no more than a few percentage points, said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg in London
South Korea is the canary in the global trade coal mine," said Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics
"Exports for the first 20 days of June already look dismal -- with a 4.8 percent year-on-year contraction reversing a 14.8 percent gain in
picture, with the next reading due July 1
component of the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing purchasing managers index.
"This has come down sharply of late, and may already reflect
growing uncertainty around trade policy, though other cyclical factors are at work as well," said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian
economics research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong
investment.
ChinaEconomists routinely cite China trade data as a key measure of global demand and what it means for the health of the
register a slowdown.
US Producer PricesVishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd
in Singapore, is watching three main indicators to get a handle on the global trade trajectory: PMI manufacturing indexes, mainly in Asia
industries cited in that strategy, Selena Ling of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp
PMI focused on electronics has weakened this year, but is holding in expansion territory -- where it should remain for another couple
tariffs could take effect, said Ling
midterms should ensure that President Donald Trump keeps everyone on their toes.
Trade VolumesEconomists are also looking at direct measures
of trade volumes such as cargo traffic
Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank in New York
"It is striking that the significant tailwind from corporate tax cuts is now being offset by other forces, most likely the uncertainties
associated with the ongoing trade war." In a note to clients, Slok highlighted recent drops in PMIs.
