COVID-19 situation under control in Kerala, say experts

INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
For the last one week, the daily caseload is showing a stable trend without any big surge
In the last week, the state has been reporting an average of 6,600 to 8,700 cases while the daily caseload crossed 10,000 and 11,000 during
the initial weeks of October.The doubling interval of the cases has also increased
In mid September, the doubling time was 23.2 days which further came down to 17.2 days by October first week and the time interval has now
The number of samples tested per day is nearly 50,000 to 60,000 for the last couple of weeks
The test positivity rate which reached 15 per cent during the initial weeks of October has dipped to 11.2 per cent
The number of deaths reported per day is hovering around 25 to 29
The state has been maintaining a very low fatality rate since the beginning of the pandemic.The public health experts had earlier pointed
steady trend
If people strictly follow the health protocol, the state may see a downward trend in coming months
But, we can conclusively say that the situation is under control when the test positivity rate is less than five per cent, which is still
around 11 percent
local body elections are likely to upset the steady transmission graph
Though the pilgrims with COVID-19 negative certificates will be allowed to enter the Ayyappa temple, drivers, cleaners and other people
coming with pilgrims might spread the virus as negative certificates are not mandatory for them
The local body election is another major concern as social distancing norms and other protocols will not be followed strictly during the
campaign and election process
There are chances for increase in mortality rate if preventive measures are not taken during massive exercise like elections as the
health experts are relieved over the high number of recoveries and steady case graph.The state has so far reported 1559 deaths and the
The state is likely to see a downward trend by this month's end
If people follow social distancing and hygiene norms and behave with commonsense, the situation will improve much by January
despite allegations that COVID-19 deaths are not being properly reported, Kerala's numbers are way better than the global figures
He further added that even if 50 percent of deaths are being reported, the state is still in a better position compared to Europe, US and
UK.