INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
The second wave of Covid-19 in India poses a downside risk to economic activity in the first quarter of FY22, the Finance ministry has said
in its Monthly Economic Review Report for April 2021, in the backdrop of rising Covid infections and fatalities across the country
But the report goes on to say that the government still expects a "muted economic impact" of the second wave compared to the first
wave.India was on the recovery path after two successive quarters of de-growth last year
The GDP had contracted by a massive 23.9 per cent in the June quarter amid the pandemic-led nationwide lockdown and by 7.5 per cent during
India thereafter stepped out of recession, with the GDP growing 0.4 per cent in the December quarter.But the momentum in economic recovery
moderated in April due to the onset of second Covid wave in India
The second wave has witnessed a higher caseload, with new peaks of daily cases, daily deaths and positivity rates
The total number of active cases have surged past the 35-lakh mark, accounting for 17 per cent of the total infections
And the daily new deaths are almost 3 times higher than the first wave.The Finance Ministry has expressed confidence that "Learning to
operate with Covid-19, as borne by international experience, provides a silver lining of economic resilience amidst the second waves." In
fact, the governmeNt's policy response to the second wave has been marked by localized micro-containment measures, state-specific movement
restrictions, mobilization of health supplies and ramping up of health infrastructure.Recently, Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs lowered
its estimate for India's economic growth to 11.1 per cent in fiscal year to March 31, 2022 as many cities and states have announced
lockdowns of varying intensities to check spread of coronavirus infections.Agriculture is one sector that stands out amid the Covid gloom,
with record foodgrain production estimated in the ensuing crop year on the back of predicted normal monsoons
India is set to have the third consecutive normal monsoon this year, with the India Meteorological Department predicting a normal southwest
monsoon in the June-September period.
