INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
After a historic collapse in the wake of Russia's military offensive in Ukraine, the ruble has staged a spectacular bounceback, supported
health of the Russian economy.The Feb
24 military operation triggered unprecedented Western sanctions on Moscow, sending the ruble into free-fall and accelerating already high
to financial stability had "ceased to increase" for now."It's clear that the Central Bank of Russia assesses that Russia's economy is
now emerging from the most acute phase of its crisis and that such restrictive monetary conditions are no longer warranted," said Liam
Peach, emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics.The ruble's return to levels last seen before the start of Moscow's military
because of sanctions, partly because of uncertainty and logistical disruptions," she told AFP."But exports are solid, and with commodity
prices high we expect a historically high account surplus of $20-25 billion in March."Oil and gas, Russia's main exports, keep flowing
those penalties have largely spared key Russian exports."It only affects 5% of Russian exports, so it's not that much," said Donets.Robust
exports have been supplemented by harsh capital controls introduced by the central bank.The West froze some $300 billion of Russia's
foreign currency reserves abroad, a move that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has described as "theft."To counter the sanctions, exporting
in foreign currency or taking more that amount out of the country, and foreign investors have been banned from selling Russian assets.'No
come and expect Russia, which has relied heavily on imports of manufacturing equipment and consumer goods, to plunge into a deep
recession.Russia's inflation rate reached 16.7% year-on-year in March, the state statistics agency said on Friday, a level not seen since
Russia in March was "the highest monthly increase since the 1990s."Renaissance Capital analysts predict that annual inflation will peak at
24% this summer.Donets said that "the market is destroyed in a sense.""We have a closed financial system now," she added."Where would the
ruble rate be if there were no capital controls? It's very hard to say, there has been no precedent."
