INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
TEHRAN- A Singaporean researcher believes Tehran no more needs to revive the JCPOA because the economic incentives that Iran hopes from the
do you evaluate the recent round of nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S
in Doha may be considered a game-changer for the Middle East (West Asia) geopolitics
which was merely meant as a face-saving formula for the leaderships of both countries
Regardless of the content of the discussions between the two parties, what is notable is that Iran and the U.S
have started their unique bilateral political engagement for the first time in years
Doha is likely to serve as a platform for such discussions between Iran and the U.S
outlandish to assume that Russia and China would be easily inclined to do away with their strategic partnerships with Iran in lieu of bigger
accused each other of bringing the talks to a stalemate
Is that a blame game or both sides are trying to extract most concessions?A: The current pause in the Vienna nuclear talks is due to
have pursued their own geopolitical goals in Vienna under the rubric of the nuclear talks, and in Doha, they are likely to do the same under
the rubric of proximity talks
The final understanding between them would be the result of the eventual calculation of their respective geopolitical gains.Since the
geopolitical dynamics are fast-changing, it becomes difficult to determine those gains, and hence the resultant delay in breakthrough
successfully determines that it is in its own national interests to engage with Iran, the breakthrough would be achieved
But the domestic politics in the U.S
is deterring the Biden administration from expressly articulating what has been obvious all along
that in light of the Ukraine war and the price of oil America would need to revive the JCPOA
However, that presupposes that the energy problem of Europe is the problem of the U.S
However, that is not really the case, and that is why European Union is more proactive to solve the Iran nuclear impasse than anyone else
So, it would not be wise to take it as given that due to the Ukraine crisis, the U.S
would be inclined to give concessions to Iran
Even when we omit the factor of the Russia-Ukraine war for a moment, it will become obvious that the U.S
has little incentive to give concessions to Iran
The apparent primary objective of the JCPOA was to stop nuclear proliferation, which could best be considered a global objective
is more inward-looking and in the process of shedding its global role, it does not feel incentivized to think much about such global
Even if we consider the whole idea of nuclear proliferation as merely a tool in the hands of great power to constrict the emerging powers,
the US will not care much as Iran is not much of a direct threat to the US
It is Israel that feels more threatened by the idea of a nuclear Iran and now the U.S.-Israel relationship has changed in a way wherein the
is no more interested in getting into the Middle East (West Asian) conflicts even for the sake of its closest regional allies.Q: How do you
see the position of Persian Gulf Arab states towards reviving the JCPOA? While countries like Qatar and Oman welcome it, Saudi Arabia seems
to be a harsh opponent of revitalizing the nuclear deal.A: For answering this question, it is pertinent to highlight the geopolitics behind
nuclear proliferation as played out by the powerful states
While the sincerity of concerned individuals in terms of the threats of nuclear proliferation cannot be questioned, in the hands of powerful
states, especially the nuclear powers, this issue is merely a tool to stop the emergence of new challenges
The nuclear status gives any state immense geopolitical leverage on a global scale and the emergence of new nuclear powers threatens the
status quo preserved by the nuclear powers
The immediate effect of such developments is the decisive change in power and status among the regional rivals
So, Saudi Arabia being the most potent regional rival to Iran feels most threatened by the idea of the revival of the JCPOA as this deal
Thus, countries such as Qatar and Oman which are friendlier to Iran welcome the JCPOA resurrection, while Saudi Arabia stands as a harsh
opponent of revitalizing the nuclear deal
revive the JCPOA, regardless of its relationship with Russia and China
This is because the kind of economic incentives that Iran hopes for from the revival of the JCPOA cannot be achieved unless the Iran-U.S
relation is fundamentally changed
This is the reason any engagement of Iran-U.S
should be seen from that broader perspective rather than merely hinging on the JCPOA revival
As far as Russia and China are concerned, they forged strategic partnerships with Iran for their own benefits
One should not forget that these countries were equal participants with the US in voting in favor of the four rounds of United Nations
Security Council sanctions against Iran
is, the more partners it is likely to earn internationally
be dependent on prevalent geopolitical conditions
It would not be outlandish to assume that Russia and China would be easily inclined to do away with their strategic partnerships with Iran
in lieu of bigger and better offers from elsewhere
That is the fundamental premise of international relations.
