INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold their first face-to-face meeting in a year on Monday
who has not traveled abroad since the International Criminal Court put out a warrant for his arrest.The final days before the meeting have
seen intensive talks between Turkish and Russian diplomats, as well as between officials from Turkey and the European Union, the United
condition of anonymity given the confidential nature of the preparations, said he hoped the leaders could reach an agreement but admitted it
"If it is not restored, it actually means that the entire waters of the Black Sea will turn into a foothold for an unrestricted military
confrontation," the source continued
"This can affect not only military but also commercial vessels
Moreover, not only of the warring parties [Russia and Ukraine] but also of everyone who navigates there.""I think everyone realizes that
this should have been avoided as much as possible," the insider said.The Kremlin terminated the Black Sea grain deal in July, citing
complaints that its demands within the framework of the agreement had not been met.Since it was agreed upon a year prior, the UN and
Turkish-brokered deal had ensured the safe wartime export of grain and foodstuffs from Ukraine, a major global supplier, via Turkey.Ankara
funds as the country has the role of a grain hub, processes some of the grain into flour and sells it as a Turkish product," a retired
European diplomat told The Moscow Times.The July 2022 Black Sea grain deal actually consisted of several agreements: one between Turkey and
Ukraine and the other between Russia and the UN
Erdogan lacks the power to influence Moscow's demands of the U.S
and the EU, which remains reluctant in principle to lift any sanctions against Russia."Erdogan and Putin can try to agree to simply replace
Ukrainian grain supplies to Turkey with Russian grain supplies that Qatar is willing to pay for
But this can under no circumstances suit Kyiv," the retired European diplomat said."In this case, tankers carrying Russian grain would
become a target for the Ukrainian military and intelligence," the insider close to the Russian Foreign Ministry agreed in a conversation
with The Moscow Times.Alternatively, Turkey could theoretically become a hub for grain supplies from both Ukraine and Russia."But there are
a lot of complexities here
Kyiv will never accept [the inclusion of] grain supplies from the territories of Ukraine occupied by the Russian army
They consider them stolen
And how to separate them [from Russian grain]?" said the Russian Foreign Ministry insider.It is also unlikely that Ukraine will commit to
ending attacks on port infrastructure in annexed Crimea.Erdogan remains the only NATO leader who has not cut ties with Putin or sanctioned
Russia over the invasion of Ukraine
This gives him leverage to pressure the Kremlin during negotiations.In addition to discussing grain supplies, several topics relating to
bilateral ties will be on the table, according to a list obtained by The Moscow Times, including Russian gas supplies to Turkey, nuclear
Syria and Libya, where both countries have significant interests, as well as the Azerbaijani blockade of the ethnic Armenian enclave of
Nagorno-Karabakh, are among the foreign policy issues to be discussed.A damaged warehouses in southern Ukraine's Odessa region after Russian
shelling.Oleg Kiper / TelegramIn recent years, Russia has become one of the leaders in the global market for agricultural products and
While the West did not target Russian grain and fertilizers with sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine, it has placed restrictions on
insurance, payments and other aspects related to these exports.These continued restrictions prompted Moscow's withdrawal from the
deal.Russia is now demanding that state agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank be reconnected to the SWIFT financial messaging system; that
deliveries of agricultural equipment and spare parts be resumed; that restrictions on ship insurance and a ban on access to ports be lifted,
and that Russian finances for food and fertilizer be unblocked.In the two months since the grain deal was halted, tensions in the Black Sea
between Moscow and Kyiv have escalated
Russia spearheaded multiple aerial drone attacks on infrastructure for grain shipments at ports near Odesa and on the Danube River, while
Ukrainian naval drones in July damaged the Crimean bridge for a second time and stepped up attacks on Russian warships.Moscow and Kyiv have
alternately threatened to treat any vessels, including civilian ones, leaving their ports as military targets.Despite its naval superiority,
Russia is not capable of organizing a total blockade of Ukrainian ports and stopping grain shipments
industry.Meanwhile, Ukraine, with the use of maritime drones, is able to exert considerable pressure and cause trouble not only for Russian
risk of conflict in the Black Sea."If the market gets spooked and if there is a closure of the Kerch Strait, which [transports] 30% of
Russian exports, there will be a rally like what we saw at the outbreak of the war
