INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
This week brings crucial economic updates for Peru, Mexico, and Chile, with their first-quarter GDP figures set for releaseIn Mexico,
experts predict the final first-quarter GDP figure will confirm weak growth.However, March data might indicate recovering activity and
stronger growth in the second quarter.In Chile, strong first-quarter GDP growth may lead the central bank to slow easing, cutting rates to
6% with potential for further reductions.In Peru, first-quarter GDP data will likely show continued recovery in activity and domestic demand
(Photo Internet reproduction)In Argentina, economic analysts anticipate that March activity data will likely indicate a significant drop in
Q1 GDP.It is expected that the president will meet with most governors on May 25 to seek support for his reform package.ArgentinaOn Tuesday,
May 21, they will publish the Economic Activity Index for March 2024
Experts forecasts a monthly variation of -1.0% and an annual change of -6.9%.This would bring the three-month average to -3.6%
quarter-over-quarter and -4.8% year-over-year for the first quarter.Previous data showed declines in key activity sectors: manufacturing
fell 6.3% month-over-month, construction dropped 14.2%, and mining, which had been increasing, fell 2.8%.ChileOn Monday, May 20, officials
will publish the first-quarter GDP for 2024.Experts project a 2.5% year-over-year growth, aligning with a 2.0% quarterly increase after a
to 6.0% from 6.5%, following previous cuts of 75 basis points in April and 100 basis points in January.This would total a 525 basis point
reduction since the easing cycle began in July.ColombiaOn Tuesday, May 21, officials will release the March 2024 trade balance.The will
suggests a slow recovery in activity and domestic demand
Export revenues rose to $3.83 billion, while imports increased to $5.37 billion, according to preliminary figures.MexicoOn Monday, May 20,
retail sales for March 2024 will be published
They likely rose 2.1% year-over-year, affected by fewer working days due to Easter holidays.This implies another monthly increase following
growth revised up from 1.6% to 1.7% year-over-year, consistent with a 0.2% quarterly increase after a 0.1% rise in the fourth quarter.The
same day, they will reveal the Economic Activity Index for March 2024, projecting a 1.05% year-over-year decline.Seasonally adjusted
forecasts imply a 0.8% month-over-month rise after a 1.4% increase in February.They will also release the Consumer Price Index inflation
monetary policy meeting minutes will be available.Analysts anticipate a hawkish tone, detailing the maintenance of the 11% rate after a 25
basis point cut in March.On Friday, May 24, they will publish the April 2024 trade balance, likely showing a $1.52 billion surplus.PeruOn
Thursday, May 23, the first-quarter GDP for 2024 will be released.Analysts estimate a 1.4% year-over-year growth, implying a 0.5% quarterly
experts.They cite rising unemployment and prolonged political uncertainty as ongoing challenges.
