INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the
assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, three senior Iranian officials said.Iran has vowed a severe response to Haniyeh&s
killing, which took place as he visited Tehran late last month and which it blamed on Israel
Israel has neither confirmed or denied its involvement
Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses.One of the sources, a senior Iranian security
official, said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or it perceives Israel is
dragging out negotiations
The sources did not say how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before responding.With an increased risk of a broader Middle East
war after the killings of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has been involved in intense dialogue with Western countries and
the United States in recent days on ways to calibrate retaliation, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the
sensitivity of the matter.In comments published on Tuesday, the U.S
ambassador to Turkey confirmed Washington was asking allies to help convince Iran to de-escalate tensions
Three regional government sources described conversations with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire talks, due to begin on
Thursday in either Egypt or Qatar.&We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire,&
Iran&s mission to the U.N
said on Friday in a statement
Iran&s foreign ministry on Tuesday said calls to exercise restraint &contradict principles of international law.&Iran&s foreign ministry and
its Revolutionary Guards Corps did not immediately respond to questions for this story
The Israeli Prime Minister&s Office and the U.S
State Department did not respond to questions.&Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies… That is a U.S
assessment as well as an Israel assessment,& White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Monday.&If something does happen this
week, the timing of it could certainly well have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday,& he added.At the weekend, Hamas cast
doubt on whether talks would go ahead
Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months without agreeing a final ceasefire.In Israel, many observers believe a
response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would &harshly punish& Israel for the strike in Tehran.&We are
closely following what happens in Beirut and Tehran, and are working to thwart any (possible) threat, while also preparing a variety of
offensive options,& Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit to an intelligence base in Northern Israel.&We are determined
to fulfill our mission & we must ensure the safe return of (Israel&s northern) residents to their homes, once we ensure that Hezbollah
withdraws north of the Litani River.&Iran&s regional policy is set by the elite Revolutionary Guards, who answer only to Khamenei, the
Iran&s relatively moderate new president Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly reaffirmed Iran&s anti-Israel stance and its support for
resistance movements across the region since taking office last month.Meir Litvak, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University&s Alliance
Center for Iranian Studies, said he thought Iran would put its needs before helping its ally Hamas but that Iran also wanted to avoid a
full-scale war.&The Iranians never subordinated their strategy and policies to the needs of their proxies or protégées,& Litvak said
&An attack is likely and almost inevitable but I don&t know the scale and the timing.&Iran-based analyst Saeed Laylaz said the Islamic
Republic&s leaders were now keen to work towards a ceasefire in Gaza, &to obtain incentives, avoid an all-out war and strengthen its
position in the region.&Laylaz said Iran had not previously been involved in the Gaza peace process but was now ready to play &a key
role.&Iran, two of the sources said, was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks
However, they said the representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions &to maintain
a line of diplomatic communication& with the United States while negotiations proceed.Iran&s mission to the United Nations in New York told
Reuters that Tehran would not have a representative present on the sidelines of the ceasefire talks
Officials in Washington, Qatar and Egypt did not immediately respond to questions about whether Iran would play an indirect role in
talks.Two senior sources close to Lebanon&s Hezbollah said Tehran would give the negotiations a chance but would not give up its intentions
to retaliate.A ceasefire in Gaza would give Iran cover for a smaller &symbolic& response, one of the sources said.Israel launched its
assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed into southern Israel on Oct
7, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and capturing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.Since then, nearly 40,000
Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli offensive in Gaza, according to the health ministry.Iran has not publicly indicated what would
be the target of an eventual response to the Haniyeh assassination
ReutersOn April 13, two weeks after two Iranian generals were killed in a strike on Tehran&s embassy in Syria, Iran unleashed a barrage of
hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles towards Israel, damaging two airbases
Almost all of the weapons were shot down before they reached their targets.&Iran wants its response to be much more effective than the April
13 attack,& said Farzin Nadimi, senior fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East policy.&Nadimi said such a response would require
&a lot of preparation and coordination& especially if it involved Iran&s network of allied armed groups opposing Israel and the United
States across the Middle East, with Hezbollah the senior member of the so-called &Axis of Resistance,& that along with Iraqi militias and
Yemen&s Houthis have harried Israel since Oct
7.Two of the Iranian sources said Iran would support Hezbollah and other allies if they launched their own responses to the killing of
Haniyeh and Hezbollah&s top military commander, Fuad Shukr, who died in a strike in Beirut the day before Haniyeh was killed in Tehran.The
sources did not specify what form such support could take.The post Only Gaza ceasefire will delay retaliation, say Iranian officials first
