INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
territory.The attack has caused consternation in the Kremlin, changing the cadence of the fighting from a sluggish positional war to a new
the largest and best equipped.Despite early panic, the gas continues to flow through Sudzha, with neither Ukraine nor Russia announcing
intentions to cut off the supplies.As of Thursday, the volume of Russian gastransit through Ukraine was estimated at about 42.4 million
cubic meters per day compared to the August average of 41 million cubic meters,Gazprom said.The proceeds from the transit deal, although
modest atabout $800 million, help Ukraine maintain its transport system while keeping a lid on European gas prices
According to analyst Sergei Kaufman and the independentMeduza website, the transit ban would cause spot prices for gas to rise by about
In 2023, Ukraine transitroute accounted for about half of what little gas Russia still shipped to Europe bringing about$7-8 billion in
according to official data for 2023
It accounts for about 14% of the oilseeds agricultural land and 11% of the cereals land in the Central Federal District, which includes the
military and economic impact, but its political outcome widens the scope for the conflict to ramp up.For one thing, the Kursk incident could
trigger a "new round of escalation," potentially pushing up wheat prices, Sizov said.This scenario could materialize if trade in the Black
Sea, a key shipping route for agricultural products, is disrupted again.For example, Chicago wheat rose on Thursday following an overnight
Russian attack on the Ukrainian Black Sea grain export port of Odesa, Reuters reported on Thursday.Likewise, while cutting off Ukraine's
gas transit seems like a lose-lose situation, there is no guarantee that it won't happen.The losses may bemanageable for both sides in the
medium term, but it would sever the remaining economic link between Russia and Europe, increasing the potential risks of an all-out
confrontation, including both sides stepping up strikes on each other's energy infrastructure.
