INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
2 min read Last Updated : Oct 03 2024 | 1:59 PM IST
Adversities such as war may be a good time for long-term investors who have an
appetite for risk to buy their favourite stocks cheaper, say analysts
However, they need to first evaluate whether the geopolitical developments are likely to stay localised, or can escalate.
Markets, data
shows, typically react with heightened volatility on expectations of any negative event / uncertainty, and even when the event unfolds
However, over time as the event unfolds, there is a realisation that the situation might get diffused, and then the rally in equity markets
Historically, equity markets have generally overreacted near the geopolitical risks in the near-term, but have found their feet soon.
Take
for instance, Iran invasion of Kuwait in 1990 triggered a sharp correction in the markets and oil prices had doubled back then
Equities markets, however, were back to peak level four months later.
Back home, the Kargil confrontation between India and Pakistan also
saw a sharp correction in the markets in mid-1999
However, markets rallied sharply as realization dwelled that this would be a short-lasting conflict.
In the last few trading sessions,
global equity markets, including India, have borne the brunt of an escalation in geopolitical tensions in West Asia, which in turn triggered
a 5 per cent rise in Brent crude oil prices to around $75 a barrel.
"Events such as a war do present a buying opportunity for long-term
That said, one needs to evaluate if the latest developments will be short-lived or will the situation get worse
Even with the Israel - Palestine conflict, the markets had dropped sharply initially, but bounced back quickly as they realised that the
developments will remain localised
Even now, investors are not bothered about the war, but are more concerned whether it will remain localized or not
In case things are contained, markets can stage a bounce back in the next few days," said Ambareesh Baliga, an independent market
expert.
The next few weeks, however, could be trying for the markets as they look forward to the outcome of the state elections back home
amid the September 2024 (Q2-FY25) earnings season, monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of India
At the global level, the outcome of the US presidential polls will be a key monitorable, besides the crude oil price trajectory.First
Published: Oct 03 2024 | 1:43 PMIST
