INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
The pulp industry has witnessed a significant drop in prices over the past three months
Analysts and industry insiders believe the market may have reached its lowest point.However, they remain cautious about future developments
The pulp market faces uncertainty due to additional supply entering the market.Industry sources suggest two possible scenarios: prices have
bottomed out or further corrections may occur
They stress the importance of observing market reactions to the new supply in the coming months.Some producers believe prices are at or near
Several factors support this view:1
Economic stimulus in China2
Current prices below production costs for Northern Hemisphere players3
Strong demand in various regions4
Ongoing logistical challenges causing delivery delaysThese elements could help maintain prices at their current levels.Pulp Prices Plummet
25% in Three Months, Industry Cautiously Optimistic
(Photo Internet reproduction)Analyst PerspectivesAnalysts generally hold a more optimistic outlook
Rafael Barcellos from Bradesco BBI notes that demand typically strengthens in the second half of the year
This seasonal trend could support prices.Barcellos also points out that reduced long-fiber pulp production capacity in the Northern
Hemisphere has led to increased demand for short-fiber pulp.The tighter long-fiber market makes short-fiber prices more resilient
package suggest a more favorable demand outlook in the Asian country.Daniel Sasson from Italy BBA observes signs that pulp consumers believe
prices are very close to the bottom
significant price drops in the future
volumes from the Cerrado Project, which began operations in July
The new factory has an annual capacity of 2.55 million tons and is expected to produce 900,000 tons in 2024.BTG Pactual calculates that
Suzano will withhold about 400,000 tons of fiber from the market this year
Analysts expect a positive market reaction to this announcement
The additional pulp volumes from the Ribas do Rio Pardo factory are expected to impact the physical market more significantly.This is
anticipated to occur in the fourth quarter
$474 per ton in the Chinese market in May, helped rebalance the market
The recent stabilization of prices around $560-$570 per ton brings some relief to investors.During the strong correction period, the main
question was how low prices could go
The market now appears to have found a tentative equilibrium.
