INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
In March 2022, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine was unfolding, U.S
components of Moscow's success now eroding after three years of war, the country faces serious dilemmas in the coming year.Will the Russian
economic growth, Russia appears to be at the crossroads of how to handle runaway inflation.Leaving the situation as it is, without a break
in credit and spending, risks triggering an inflationary spiral
Under such a scenario, companies and individuals will prioritize current spending over saving in the face of double-digit price rises across
raising the key interest rate and reducing the scale of government-subsidized loans.These measures are designed to make borrowing more
Central Bank's survey of Russian economists predicts GDP growth of 1.5% next year, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts
Russian GDP growth of 1.3%.Some economists, however, predict that the Central Bank's actions could lead to a short recession, defined as a
so [I see] a recession [coming], at least for now, and so it's actually the recession that should solve the main problems with inflation,"
sector expanded and inflation rose.Economies at war are also expected to see a decline in real wages as they cannot keep up with the
money to attract workers in an unprecedentedly tight labor market.However, the wage miracle may finally be coming to an end
As long as the labor market remains tight, it is unlikely that companies outside the defense sector will be as willing to raise
on servicing them [due to high interest rates]
market, is the prospect of a second wave of forced mobilization.So far, Russia has replenished its manpower for operations, mainly in
physically capable.Recruitment point for military service under a contract in Moscow.Sergei Kiselev / Moskva News AgencyMeanwhile, a
the Defense Ministry took many agricultural workers to the front during the first mobilization in the autumn of 2022, even though this is
companies already struggling to find workers in a tight labor market, which in turn could contribute to an economic slowdown
It could also lead to another, albeit small, wave of young people fleeing the country, echoing the mass exodus that followed the fall 2022
Moscow is still able to deliver its oil to customers at acceptable prices, even though it has lost a significant portion of the market for
additional discounts to its buyers if the U.S
companies are still selling their goods abroad, mainly energy resources, for foreign currency, it is challenging to bring this currency back
currency in the country, which puts pressure on the ruble
For example, in November Russia's major exporters reduced foreign currency sales by 23% compared to October, to $8 billion
This represents a decline of some 43% compared to November 2023 and is the lowest level since July 2023, when oil prices plunged.Other
factors weighing on the ruble include Russia's stable imports from abroad, which cannot be replaced by domestic production due to
bottlenecks, and uncertainty about oil prices.A currency exchange office in Moscow.Arthur Novosiltsev / Moskva News AgencyAnalysts like
Moscow-based analytics company, forecast the dollar to rise to 115 rubles by the end of 2025
The weakening of the ruble may continue amid rising inflation, problems with exports, as well as global dollar growth, SberCIB analysts
noted.Finance analyst Pavel Ryabov forecasts that in 2025 the average exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar will be around 110
