INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Political scientist Jan Matti Dollbaum is a prominent scholar of contemporary Russian politics whose research focuses on activism and
opposition movements in Russia
lies ahead for these movements as the conflict potentially approaches its conclusion in the new year.The Moscow Times: What is the Russian
opposition today? Who are the groups and people that represent the opposition?Jan Matti Dollbaum: The full-scale invasion of Ukraine added
an extra layer to this question
Before, I would answer your question by responding: Do you mean the Moscow opposition or the people in the regions? Are you talking only
about the liberals we see in the West, or about other groups like nationalists, leftists and eco-activists? Nowadays, the next level is
those who are inside and those who are outside of Russia
This is a very small group, but it has the most attention in the media and among Western politicians
However, we know there are many others, and at the same time, the exiled opposition seems to be losing touch with those who remain in Russia
But I think it matters from a discursive point of view since there is an ongoing battle over who is the legitimate representative of
Russians in the West, such as in the case of Ilya Yashin, Vladimir Kara-Murza and others holding a demonstration in Berlin, where they try
in Russia, such as during elections and protests
The first is to talk to the world about Russia and what kind of country Russia has the potential to become
They are offering ideas for a different kind of Russia with alternative policies
because they are seeing very clearly that these sanctions are what angers Russians at home
Since they see Russians in Russia as their future electorate, they also cannot do as much for a Ukrainian victory as the Ukrainians would
want, for instance donating to the Ukrainian army
The second thing the opposition is doing is broadcasting information to the Russian public, mainly through YouTube and Telegram
They are providing alternative media where they talk about the true costs of the war for Russia
So, I think these are two ways in which they can take action
A major way they tried to act before the war was through mobilizing Russians in Russia
between the exiled opposition and what remains of an opposition inside Russia during the 2024 presidential election
Yekaterina Duntsova and Boris Nadezhdin both unsuccessfully tried running for president
The squabbling died down and everyone in the opposition was more or less behind Boris Nadezhdin
there are many others like them
Nadezhdin was obviously not going to become president and he did not pose a threat to the regime
This was more of an internal strategy for the opposition
Of course, if they were to change their position on violence as a political tool and their willingness to engage in it, then things might be
of jar with their liberal-democratic branding.I think violence is the only way this regime can be overturned from the outside
Or something may happen on the inside, which is unlikely
capable of using violence? I think real, though not necessarily democratic, change could come from someone like [late Wagner mercenary
leader Yevgeny] Prigozhin
If you want to make an impact, you need guys with guns
A more realistic option might be to wait and see whether Ukraine can pull off a victory in the war
Since Navalny died in February, his allies seem to be somewhat in disarray and quarreling with others more than usual
That was its whole evolution
It was supposed to be a political engine
about what the members want
It was more of a firm or a corporate party
But it was still very focused on Navalny as the leader
Even while he was in prison, Navalny acted as a kind of spiritual leader and FBK continued to function as before
Of course, they have resources and connections
But their biggest asset was the ability to mobilize people, which they can no longer do in Russia
All they can do now is try to influence politicians in the West and broadcast messages to Russians
Speaking of parties, what about the systemic opposition in Russia? I mean the Communist Party, Liberal Democratic Party, A Just Russia and
Do they matter anymore?They might become important as organizational shells at some point, as things that have labels and a legal entity, as
well as established resources and networks in the regions that can be appropriated by other people
They might matter in the future, as we saw with Prigozhin, who wanted to take control of the St
Petersburg branch of A Just Russia
exploit the organizational networks and resources of these parties to lead a political movement.Yes, some kind of disgruntled regime figure
Maybe someone like [Moscow Mayor] Sergei Sobyanin or others who have political ambitions that cannot be realized under Putin
These parties may provide a platform for ambitious counter-elites
They may be regime figures who want to establish their own authoritarian system.Looking ahead, if the war in Ukraine ends next year, which
now, under the same regime, which is trying to sell the outcome as a victory, then I think little to nothing would change
And if Western countries lifted sanctions as part of a ceasefire or peace deal, then the opposition may have an even harder time, since
Putin would be stronger domestically
In either case, when all of the problems of the war start to really bite, when war veterans return home and start demanding more just
treatment, all of the trauma will begin to surface
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