INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Belarusians go to the polls this weekend to vote in a presidential election that is almost certain to see incumbent President Alexander
Lukashenko returned to office for a seventh term.The country was rocked by the largest mass protests since independence in the massively
falsified previous elections in August 2020, where Lukashenko won by a landslide according to the official tally, but lost decisively to
Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, according to the few rebel polling stations that released their actual vote tallies
security services could finally reclaim control of the streets.The former collective farm manager has learned his lesson and is expected to
stand unopposed in these elections, other than a few handpicked strawmen to lend the election a veneer of legitimacy
anyone in the country likely to protest at the fixed nature of the election.Most of the opposition figures from the 2020 election have
either been jailed or fled the country into self-imposed exile, including Tsikhanouskaya, who now lives in Lithuania with her children
Her husband Syarhey Tsikhanouski languishes in a Belarusian jail along with an estimated 1,300 other political prisoners, according to the
Viasna Human Rights Center.Farmer to presidentLukashenko has now been in office for 30 years and was first elected in 1996, when he ran on
In almost all of the 15 newly minted republics, the leadership was taken over in 1991 by whoever was running the former Soviet Socialist
Republic at the time and in most countries that leader stayed on as president for the following decade or longer.Russian President Boris
Yeltsin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko sign the Treaty on the Establishment of the Russian-Belarusian Union in 1997.RIA
Novosti archive (CC BY-SA 3.0)However, once in office Lukashenko rapidly consolidated his grip on power and later changed the 1996
constitution to remove the two-term time limit, effectively making himself president for life, if he should so choose.He has talked of
leaving his job, under Russian pressure to quit and hand over to fresh blood
Analysts believe he may step down but take up leadership of this body as a way of fulfilling his pledge to leave, but in effect remain in
He also appears to be grooming his son Kolya to take over from him when he eventually does retire.Carrot campaignThe state has been handing
out benefits to loyal voters in the form of wage hikes and bigger pensions
The main beneficiaries are his ultra loyal security forces, high-ranking officials and state sector leadership, which the regime also uses
as a political tool to monitor and control the population.Just before the voting begins, Lukashenko ordered the release of another 23
political prisoners on the eve of the poll, according to a government press release on Jan
18.This was the ninth round of prisoner releases over the last year, in show of public leniency
Altogether some 230 political prisoners have been released over the past year as part of an effort to paint Lukashenko as the benevolent
plant.president.gov.byOne of the few pluses Lukashenko has to offer has been a consumer boom in the last three years, as the spill-over of
while real disposable household incomes were up by 9.5% and real wages climbed by a whopping 12%
As of November 2024, the average wage exceeded 2,200 Belarusian rubles ($673), a relatively high wage in the CIS
shortage that Russia is suffering from
Unlike Russia, inflation was a modest 5.2%, staying within the 6% cap set by the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB)
And exports to Russia are booming, expected to reach some $50 billion for all of 2024.While there is little in the way of private enterprise
following the 2020 demonstration has been increased and the unreformed KGB (Belarus is the only former Soviet country that has not renamed
the Soviet-era security service) has been running a campaign of intimidation.Following the mass protests, all of the independent press has
been shuttered and what little tolerance for liberalism has been crushed
Since 2020, the regime has eliminated all but four loyal political parties and liquidated over 1,800 civil society organizations.Protesters
face-off with Belarusian policemen during a rally against government and President Lukashenko in Minsk in 2020.STR / EPA / TASSLukashenko
came very close to being ousted following a disastrous speech to blue-collar workers at the MZKT factory, which makes military trucks, in
Nominally his most loyal supporters, the truck factory workers booed and heckled an obviously disconcerted Lukashenko, who rapidly left the
entirely on the support of the security services to maintain his grip on power.CandidatesEarly voting opened on Jan
21 as students and government sector workers were bused to polling stations
have been granted permission to run in the race
International election observers such as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Office for Democratic Institutions
and Human Rights (ODIHR) have not been invited to observe the election.People queue at a polling station during early voting in the 2025
Belarusian presidential election.Vladimir Smirnov / TASSThe Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) Rapporteur Ryszard Petru
The pro-government polls predict that 61% of respondents intend to participate in the Jan
26 vote, whereas only 11% of the protest-oriented audience are willing to cast their votes.In something of a political gamble, Lukashenko
allow those disillusioned with the Lukashenko regime to blow off some steam and to legitimise the elections.Kanapatskaya continues to
over what strategy is best to effect the release of political prisoners
activist Svetlana Tikhanovskaya with a portrait of her husband Sergei Tikhanovsky at the economic forum in Davos.AP / TASSOthers prefer a
her prominence on the international stage has left her in charge
including the Council of Europe and Polish authorities which now heads the Council, divisions persist over strategy
this month, where the government in exile issues passports to exiles
But after no partner country was willing to recognize the passports, the scheme has failed and, together with the unseemly bickering,
that is expected to condemn the falsification of these elections and call for the use of International Criminal Court (ICC) mechanisms to
hold Lukashenko accountable
It will also urge EU member states to support an investigation into the situation in Belarus by the ICC.Similar resolutions are planned to
be adopted by the Polish Senate on Jan
27-31.This article was originally published by bne IntelliNews.
