What Next for Russian Gas in Europe: 5 Key Questions

INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Russian pipeline gas has stopped flowing to Europe through Ukraine as of the New Year, marking the end of a decades-long arrangement.Moldova
is the main victim of the move, with its breakaway region of Transnistria suffering an energy crisis
European countries through Ukraine, a supply route used for decades, from Jan
all supplies to Moldova, citing both the lack of ability to transport gas through Ukraine and the debt allegedly owed to Russian gas
exporter Gazprom by Moldova's Moldovgaz
temporary solution.The city of Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria.Vasily Gryu (CC BY-SA 4.0)Although Moldova proper imports its own gas
energy system and therefore suffer from the crisis
to the crisis exist.Transnistria could buy gas from the EU market, but this will be costly and will likely have to be subsidized by either
added.Slovakia estimated the losses for its economy from the Ukraine transit end at 177 million euros ($184 million) for receiving gas
through alternative routes.Alternative gas supplies are likely to come mainly from U.S
as supplies tighten, Reuters cited Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, as saying
for the EU's weaker industrial output, which was about 1.4% lower in 2024 compared to 2021 and is set to decline by 0.7% in 2025 compared to
not fundamental volume," analyst Sergei Vakulenko said.Russia stands to lose about $4-5 billion in revenues from the end of Ukrainian
transit, although these calculations are highly tentative
For example, the gas Russia supplied to Moldova via Ukraine (about 2 billion cubic meters) had gone to the pro-Russian region of
Ukrainian-Polish border
Vitaly Grabar / TASSWhile Russian pipeline gas accounted for 31% of gross European supply and gas supplied via Ukraine for 8% in the
pre-invasion year of 2021, the respective figures had fallen to 9% and 4% by 2024.Before the end of the Ukrainian transit, Russia had
already cut off gas supplies via the Yamal pipeline through Poland and the Nord Stream pipeline through the Baltic Sea, in addition to
Russian LNG deliveries to the EU hit 17.8 million tons in 2024, up more than 2 million tons from 2023 and the highest in years, according to
LNG.