INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Ambassador to NATO, and James M
Lindsay, director of fellowship affairs at the Council on Foreign Relations.The edited version of the article is as follows:Pax Americana is
Born with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, the U.S.-led international rules-based order died with the second
The president has long maintained that this order disadvantages the United States by saddling it with the burden of policing the globe and
enabling its allies to play it for a sucker
Greenland make it clear that he envisions a return to nineteenth-century power politics and spheres of interest, even if he does not frame
his foreign policy in those terms
In that era, the great powers of the day sought to divide the world into regions that each would dominate, regardless of the desires of
Trump sees few significant U.S
interests outside the Western Hemisphere, considers alliances to be a drain on the U.S
Treasury, and believes the United States should dominate its neighborhood
One can understand why some Americans might feel their country would fare better in a different, might-makes-right world
arguably its strongest geographic position.But it has a profoundly underrated disadvantage: lack of practice
Naked power politics is alien terrain for the United States, but it is familiar territory to its current rivals
They have learned to work together to counter U.S
influence, especially in the global South
And unlike Trump, they do not face internal checks and balances on their power
They could overplay their hands and generate a backlash to their revisionist ambitions
In 1823, President James Monroe famously declared the Western Hemisphere off-limits to further European colonization
In 1977, the United States agreed to relinquish control of the Panama Canal only in the face of rising anti-Americanism in Latin America and
over the staunch opposition of Americans who believed, as one U.S
The founding American generation harbored dreams of absorbing Canada; writing at the start of the War of 1812, fought between the United
President James Polk set aside this ambition in 1846 in favor of the current U.S.-Canadian border only because he was reluctant to confront
a more powerful United Kingdom over a distant and largely uninhabited territory as war with Mexico loomed
President Andrew Johnson considered purchasing Greenland from Denmark when the United States bought Alaska from Russia in 1867, and
The Panama Canal is a vital sea route for U.S
Roughly 40 percent of all U.S
container traffic passes through the waterway, and nearly three-quarters of all containers sailing through the canal originate in or are
destined for the United States
security would be endangered if another great power controlled the canal
The melting of the Arctic ice cap will soon create a new northern waterway, bringing additional military vulnerabilities to northern North
Greenland also boasts large reserves of the critical minerals that the United States needs for clean energy technologies
And making Canada the 51st state would eliminate trade barriers between the two countries, in theory reducing economic inefficiencies and
potentially enriching people on both sides of the border.Washington, however, has already achieved many of these strategic objectives
without resorting to threats
Greenlanders have proved eager to solicit American rather than Chinese investment in their economy
And the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Trump negotiated during his first term, has already encouraged economic integration between the
Trump has now abandoned.It is clear whose approach Trump seeks to emulate instead
Trump regularly denounces these allies for taking advantage of U.S
controlling Chinese citizens.Trump, moreover, appears comfortable with ceding spheres of influence to China and Russia if they return the
agreement that cedes Ukrainian territory to Russia and bars Ukraine from joining NATO
threatened to withdraw U.S
He views such alliances as bad investments that saddle the United States with the cost of protecting countries that, to add insult to
a lever to extract concessions from countries that displease him
as Australia and Japan, Trump favors using tariffs to force both domestic and foreign corporations to relocate production to the United
Trump also sees tariffs as instruments to compel foreign capitals to bend to his will on other issues
He has warned Denmark that it will face higher tariffs if it refuses to sell Greenland
And just this week, he threatened to impose tariffs on Colombia for its refusal to accept military flights deporting its nationals from the
The creators of the postwar global order believed high tariffs only fueled destructive economic nationalism and conflict
Canada and Mexico may agree to do more, at least symbolically, to secure their borders
nineteenth-century power politics will likely not yield the bonanza that Trump has promised
on Moscow and Beijing at a scale that neither power can replicate
Ceding that advantage will come at great cost to the United States: not only will erstwhile U.S
instead.The United States may face similar setbacks on the trade front
producers are already at a growing competitive disadvantage exporting to the 12 members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for
The door for the United States to join CPTPP, which has remained ajar, may soon close
But it could open for China, potentially giving Beijing a say over the standards and rules that govern a wide swath of the global economy
It has just concluded new and upgraded agreements with Mexico and countries in South America, and it is finalizing deals with Australia and
allies must demonstrate strength.China is especially well positioned to contest U.S
because China and Russia may be better at it
Those efforts will likely ramp up as Trump turns to threats to pressure friends and neighbors; as a result, Washington will almost surely
lose some ability to attract support
China is especially well positioned to contest U.S
Trump does not offer other countries new opportunities; he demands concessions
Beijing, by contrast, is eager to do business around the world with its Belt and Road infrastructure initiative; it invests with few
immediate conditions, and it speaks the language of win-win outcomes
Chinese firms also often offer competitive products at better prices than U.S
Unsurprisingly, China has already become the number one trading partner for many countries in the global South
And as Washington withdraws from international institutions such as the World Health Organization and the Paris climate agreement, Beijing
These countries will be tempted to try to please Trump, whether by showering him with praise, feting him with state visits, or offering
preemptive concessions such as purchasing more American-made goods
Those efforts, however, will not endear them to him
Trump will happily pocket those wins and see them as vindication of his might-makes-right approach
allies must demonstrate strength
Whether they have the capacity to do so is an open question
First, they must recognize that the era of Pax Americana is over and the era of power politics has returned
allies work together, they can confront him with plenty of their own
