INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
The oil market continues its upward trajectory this morning, building on gains from the previous sessions as geopolitical tensions outweigh
global supply concerns.Current Prices and Overnight MovementsWTI crude is trading at $67.90 per barrel this morning, extending its 1.5% gain
over the past two sessions
Brent crude futures increased by 10 cents (0.14%) to $71.30 per barrel in early trading
The spread between these two benchmarks remains relatively stable at around $3.40.Overnight, Asian markets responded positively to recent
Chinese economic data, providing support for crude prices despite broader economic concerns globally
Market activity in early European trading shows modest volume increases, particularly in Brent futures contracts.Key Market
DriversGeopolitical TensionsMiddle East instability continues to place a risk premium on crude prices
The US carried out extensive airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen over the weekend, with at least 53 casualties reported
President Trump has committed to continuing military actions against the Houthis until they cease their attacks on vessels in the Red
Sea.Crude Edges Higher: Geopolitical Tensions Outweigh Supply Concerns in March Rally
(Photo Internet reproduction)The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a significant factor, with Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian energy
infrastructure in the Astrakhan region overnight
IndicatorsChinese economic data has provided a positive catalyst for oil prices
January-February retail sales rose 4% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts of 3.8%, while fixed investment and industrial output also
outperformed expectations
Beijing has announced additional measures to boost consumption and stabilize stock and real estate markets.In the US, retail sales data came
in stronger than expected, although still showing a modest slowdown
and Demand DynamicsThe market continues to balance concerns about potential oversupply against geopolitical disruption risks
Speculative players reduced their short positions in Brent by 17mb (-14%) in the week to March 11
CTA net positioning in Brent is becoming less bearish, moving from -44k lots on March 12 to -38.5k lots on March 17.Technical AnalysisBrent
Moving averages indicate a short-term bearish trend for oil, with prices testing the area between signal lines
Resistance is expected near $72.05 per barrel, with support at $68.05.A breakout above $74.45 would indicate continued growth potential
toward $81.65, while a fall below $68.05 could trigger a decline toward $65.05.Broader Market ContextThe OECD has raised concerns about the
the anticipated effects of tariffs and trade disputes on demand, we maintain our outlook that prices will decline, potentially settling in
The Indian Rupee opened nine paise stronger against the USD at ?86.91, following five consecutive months of decline.OutlookAnalysts
anticipate that Brent crude may trade between $70 and $73 per barrel this week, supported by geopolitical risks and positive Chinese
Trump-Putin discussions regarding Ukraine could also significantly impact market sentiment, as any peace agreement might lead to the
relaxation of sanctions on Russia and increased global supply.
