INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
The Argentine peso continues its downward trajectory against the US dollar this morning as market tensions persist amid economic policy
This report examines current rates, recent market movements, and the critical spread between official and parallel markets.Current Exchange
Rates (March 18, 2025, 7:23 AM GMT)The official USD/ARS exchange rate stands at approximately 1,067 pesos per dollar early this morning,
1,180 pesos per dollar, maintaining a notable premium over official channels.Key Rate Comparison:Official Rate: ~1,067 ARS/USDBlue Dollar
Overnight trading remained volatile as investors digested recent economic data and central bank policy signals.Peso Under Pressure: Inside
(Photo Internet reproduction)The currency has weakened substantially over the longer term, with official data showing a 25.36% depreciation
Blue Dollar AnalysisThe gap between official and parallel markets remains a critical economic indicator in Argentina
The approximately 10.6% spread continues to reflect underlying economic stress, though it has narrowed significantly compared to historical
sustainability of this narrower spread remains questionable, with traders pointing to limited dollar availability in official channels and
continued demand for hard currency as inflation protection.Technical AnalysisThe USD/ARS pair has established strong resistance at the 1,070
level, with immediate support around 1,060
The 14-day RSI indicates the peso remains in oversold territory, though less extremely than in previous months.Chart patterns suggest a
consolidation phase may be forming after several months of steady depreciation, with trading volume declining slightly over the past week as
the market searches for direction.Volumes and Market FlowsThe ROFEX futures market has seen moderate trading volumes, with the March 2025
This relatively calm derivatives market suggests institutional investors have largely priced in current depreciation rates.Corporate dollar
demand remains steady, primarily for import payments, while foreign investors continue to maintain cautious positioning in Argentine
businesses increasingly adopting dollar-referenced pricing as a hedge against further peso weakness
This dollarization trend continues to spread through the economy despite official efforts to bolster confidence in the national
currency.OutlookTraders expect continued pressure on the peso in the near term, with futures markets pricing in further depreciation
deteriorate or policy credibility weakens
