INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
controlled territory since launching a surprise offensive on the Russian border region more than seven months ago.As Ukrainian forces
continue to lose ground in Kursk, the Kremlin may indeed be preparing a new attack in this direction
While the potential objectives remain unclear, some analysts suggest Russia could attack Sumy to force Kyiv to divert resources to a new
center they had controlled, and retreated to Sumy
region, following Ukrainian troops' retreat.Russian Defense MinistryRussian authorities have framed the retaking of Kursk region territory
future attacks.Following his statement, reports emerged of a potential Russian offensive in this direction
Russian troops have already carried out minor incursions into the Sumy region earlier this month, seemingly aimed at bringing key supply
border area, but there have so far been no reports of significant breakthroughs.Amid Ukraine's retreat from Kursk, Ukrainian analyst Oleksiy
Hetman claimed that Russia has deployed additional units, including mechanized brigades and artillery batteries, along the border in
Most likely, they will try to advance toward Sumy and enter our territory from the north
Whether they succeed or not is another question
intelligence nor open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts have observed signs of preparation for a large-scale invasion of Sumy."At the
moment, no one can say that somewhere deep inside Russian territory, Moscow has assembled a 200,000-strong military group and that an
On Tuesday, pro-Russian military Telegram channels reported an attempted incursion by Ukrainian forces from Sumy into Russia's Belgorod
region, which neighbors Kursk.Ukrainian rescuers cleaning rubble of a in a residential building following a drone attack in Sumy.State
Emergency Service of UkraineRussia's Defense Ministry later confirmed the purported offensive in Belgorod and claimed it had been
attacking forces likely include Ukrainian troops who previously retreated from Kursk, as indicated by distinctive markings on their armored
However, these attacks have not yet led to significant results."In this part of Belgorod region, there are no important targets for the
is a diversionary maneuver by Ukraine
Perhaps they expected the border to be as poorly defended as before, hoping to break deep into the region and force the Russian army to
redeploy significant forces from Kursk
He noted that the Russian troop contingent along the Kursk-Sumy border could number up to 60,000, though most of these forces are engaged in
logistics and support roles.According to Stupak, a potential Russian offensive on Sumy would seek to tie up Ukrainian forces already
struggling with manpower shortages, inflict further damage on Ukraine, and push deeper into its territory
He argues that even a small portion of Sumy under Russian control could be used as a bargaining chip in future peace negotiations."They will
try to hold the territory, create occupation administrations, attempt to incorporate it into Russia and use it as another trump card in
Ministry reported the construction of concrete shelters for military personnel, anti-tank barriers and trenches
The exact location and scale of these fortifications have not been disclosed.A Ukrainian soldier involved in the construction told the TSN
news outlet that fortifications are often built further inland rather than near the border due to difficult terrain and Russian attacks on
We've been making the same mistakes for three years
Either they build them in the right place but poorly, or they build them well but in the wrong location, or the concrete fortifications turn
Information about fortifications is classified
But despite initial successes, Russian forces failed to establish control due to Ukrainian resistance, and the Kremlin was forced to
withdraw by early April 2022 as part of its broader retreat from northern Ukraine.Stupak noted that if Russia launches another offensive on
Sumy, it will face a well-prepared Ukrainian force with intelligence support, including from Washington, which recently resumed intelligence
sharing with Kyiv.Unlike in 2022, large-scale movements of armored vehicles are now nearly impossible, as massive columns have become easy
Ukraine has learned from 2022 when Russian forces advanced through Sumy, so that scenario will not happen again," Stupak said.
