INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
The global oil market experienced a significant downturn in early trading on April 9, 2025, with prices reaching their lowest levels in more
Both WTI and Brent crude continue to face strong bearish pressure amid escalating US-China trade tensions and growing recession fears.As of
the morning of April 9, 2025:WTI crude is trading at approximately $57.22 per barrel, down 3.9%Brent crude has fallen to $60.36-$60.69 per
session saw continued downward pressure with:Brent futures settling down $1.39 (2.16%) at $62.82 per barrelWTI crude futures closing down
announcementGlobal Oil Rout: WTI Crashes to $57, Brent Slides Under $61 as Markets Tumble
(Photo Internet reproduction)Overnight DevelopmentsThe sell-off accelerated during Asian trading hours as the US officially implemented its
threatened tariffs:Oil slid deeper below the critical $60 level in early Wednesday tradingBoth WTI and Brent continued their downward
trajectory, reaching multi-year lowsMarket volatility increased as traders assessed the full impact of new trade measuresKey Market
DriversUS-China Trade War EscalationThe primary catalyst for the current sell-off is the implementation of punitive tariffs between the
economic contraction:Goldman Sachs has projected a 45% likelihood of a US recession within the next yearJPMorgan indicated a 60% chance of
recession both in the US and globallyTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed China is in a disadvantageous position in the trade
conflictOPEC+ Supply IncreaseAdding to downward price pressure:OPEC+ decided last week to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in
MayThis represents a significant acceleration from previously scheduled increases of 135,000 bpdSaudi Arabia announced substantial
reductions in crude oil prices for Asian consumers, bringing May prices to a four-month lowTechnical AnalysisWTI crude has broken through
critical support levels:The long-term support zone between $60.00 and $65.00 that had held since mid-2021 has been breachedCurrently in a
downward impulse wave 3, part of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from early 2024The next key support level to watch is $55.00, which
analysts identify as the target price for the completion of the active impulse waveBoth 100-period and 200-period moving averages are
trending downward above current price levels, suggesting the longer-term bearish bias remains intactInventory DataIn a somewhat contrarian
development:American Petroleum Institute data revealed that US crude inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels for the week ending April
4This contrasts with earlier expectations of an increase of approximately 1.4 million barrelsHowever, this bullish data point has been
overwhelmed by macroeconomic concernsPrice ForecastsMajor financial institutions have revised their outlooks downward:Goldman Sachs now
projects Brent and WTI crude prices could fall to $62 and $58 per barrel respectively by the end of 2025In a recession scenario, prices
its economic outlook particularly significant for global oil demandExpert CommentaryMarket makers have offered these insights:Lin, president
Several major Wall Street banks are revising down economic forecasts and indicating a significant increase in recession probabilities
output], reversing maintained over past two, signifies a major shift in market dynamics and poses a considerable challenge for
production.Traders will be closely watching for any signs of de-escalation in the trade war or OPEC+ production adjustments that could
The upcoming EIA inventory report will also be crucial in determining near-term price direction.
