INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
For many years, Germany has needed to dramatically expand its defenses, and today, it finally seems ready to do so
Berlin held inconclusive talks with the Kremlin, imposed a handful of sanctions, and then quietly returned to business as usual with Moscow
transformation that circumstances demand
To upgrade its army and kick-start its economy, Berlin is ending its long addiction to austerity, lifting a constitutional constraint that
since 2009 has limited annual debt spending to a mere 0.35 percent of gross domestic product.This new Germany will be able to support
Ukraine without having to walk behind Washington
Germany will be less bound to an erratic American president who refuses to consult with Europe on Ukraine
If more intense forms of nationalism were to take hold in Europe, a revamped German military could fall into the hands of an extremist
global stage, but when it comes to intra-European affairs, the continent may well struggle to accommodate a more powerful Berlin.A missing
umbrellaFor the past 80 years, West Germany and then a united Germany relied on the United States for its security
The relationship was mutually beneficial, although the two countries always had their disagreements
They clashed, for example, over the United States -led invasion of Iraq in 2003
Yet overall, Germans were comfortable living under the umbrella of United States protection
Germany saw no mortal enemies on the horizon and viewed its safety as a function of the transatlantic relationship.Angela Merkel, who served
Transatlantic cooperation was the bedrock of her foreign policy agenda
Under Merkel, Germany related to the rest of the world through diplomacy and commerce, not military might, and its strategy was informed by
multilateralism and a commitment to the rule of law.When Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea in 2014, Merkel insisted that there
in which Russia had some kind of seat at the table
successor, Scholz, shared her inclinations
In 2022, Scholz created a special fund of more than $100 billion to upgrade German military capacity
But the debt brake blocked more ambitious investments in defense and infrastructure
relations with East Germany and other Soviet bloc countries in the 1970s
It was difficult to shift gears completely
Other German parties favored maintaining ties with Russia even after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is far right, NATO skeptical, and Putin-friendly, and its leaders have regularly derided Scholz as a
Scholz also had to manage a fractious three-party coalition
Members of his bloc were not willing to eliminate the debt brake
This comes as something of a surprise, given his background
cooperate with the United States
Yet since the inauguration of United States President Donald Trump in January, public sentiment in Germany has shifted so precipitously
In March, the Bundestag voted by a two-thirds majority to remove the debt brake, clearing the way for Germany to spend over a trillion
dollars on defense and infrastructure
He was channeling German public opinion across the political spectrum
Most Germans now believe that the United States is unwilling to underwrite European security, could stop its assistance to Ukraine, and
might even draw down its military presence in Europe
through red tape and assuage domestic concerns about migration.The recent transformation of German politics was not born out of a discrete
It follows from the realization that old formulas no longer apply
Some Germans have already redefined the concept as cooperation with Europe
Germany is therefore changing its posture and releasing itself from the strictures that had been imposed on it by the Soviet Union, the
United States, Europe, and the German people themselves after World War II.Other European countries and the United States will applaud
would Nordic and southern European countries
And if the United States pulled away from Europe, a more militarily capable Germany would be better positioned to pick up the slack.Gentle
giant?As necessary as it is for Germany to rearm today, doing so could have troubling consequences in the long term
Europe was mostly peaceful from 1945 to 2014 in part because Europeans rejected the idea that war could solve problems
They devised nonmilitary institutions, such as the European Union, through which they could hash out their differences
And aggressive nationalism receded after World War II, as Europeans learned to channel their patriotic zeal through soccer, not war.Another
important driver of postwar peace was the relative demilitarization of Germany
During the Cold War, West Germany had a sizable military, but the country was occupied by foreign powers, including France and the United
Germany was not fully sovereign
After the Cold War, a united Germany reduced its army and was content to spend little on defense
never be a global superpower, his thinking went, but it cannot avoid having a dominant position within Europe
Moscow, which is already sabotaging Germany, will do whatever it can to frustrate a strengthening Berlin
According to a senior NATO official, for example, Russia tried last year to assassinate the CEO of Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer
If Germany rearms, Russia may provoke a crisis to discourage Germans from becoming more autonomous.A rearmed Germany will remain a force for
good only if its government can avoid falling into the hands of ultranationalists
For generations, Europe has known a Germany that is unwilling to use military force
Having lived through the horrors of extreme nationalism in the 1930s and 1940s, Germany had no desire to fight or inflame tensions with its
Yet nationalism can be contagious, and charismatic leaders can take it in unpredictable directions
It is already ascendant in places as disparate as China, India, Russia, and the United States.A rearmed Germany could unsettle its neighbors
Other European countries already criticize Germany for throwing its financial weight around in Brussels
A more broadly powerful Germany might provoke the rise of nationalism in nearby countries beyond Russia, and greater nationalism in
And a German military first strengthened by politically centrist, pro-European governments could fall into the hands of leaders willing to
Europe adjust to a rearmed Germany
If the Trump administration is determined to reduce its European footprint, it should do so slowly
and eastern Europe, as well
A gradual exit from the European theater, during which the United States slowly removes military assets so that European countries can
replace them with their own, would be vastly preferable to an abrupt withdrawal
Rushed changes could leave vacuums of power conducive to fear and suspicion
This article first appeared/also appeared in Tehran Times
