INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
centuries.According to data released by the state statistics agency Rosstat, 195,400 children were born in Russia during January and
Births fell by 18.7% in Arkhangelsk, 19.4% in the republic of Karelia, 18.6% in the Oryol region, 21.6% in Kostroma and 26.6% in
Smolensk.According to demographer Alexei Raksha, the first quarter of 2025 likely saw the lowest number of births since the early 1800s,
with February marking the lowest monthly figure in over 200 years
Based on preliminary registry office data, he estimated that 95,000 to 96,000 children were born in March, bringing the total for the first
quarter to around 293,000-294,000.Rosstat has not yet released official numbers for March.While deaths in January and February also declined
In the first two months of 2025 alone, Russia experienced a natural population decline of nearly 119,000 people.Nationwide, deaths
outnumbered births by an average of 1.6 to 1
In some regions, the gap was even wider: in Kaluga and Ivanovo, twice as many people died as were born; in Vladimir and Belgorod, the ratio
was three to one.Russia recorded 1.222 million births in 2024, the lowest annual total since 1999
Compared to 2014, the birth rate has fallen by a third
are expected to keep falling
The annual number could drop to just 1.14 million by 2027.A slow recovery might begin in the late 2020s, but even by 2045, the number of
a more pessimistic scenario, roughly equal to the size of the Russian Empire in 1897.This sharp decrease could significantly reshape
By the early 2040s, the number of children and teenagers is projected to fall by 26%, to just 20 million
Their share of the population would drop from 18.5% today to 14.2%
Meanwhile, the proportion of elderly Russians is expected to grow from 24.5% today to nearly 27% by 2046.
