INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
above the 4.5% target ceiling.The Focus Bulletin, a weekly survey of financial institutions, reveals persistent pressure from food, energy,
and administered prices, despite five Selic rate hikes since August 2024
The benchmark rate now sits at 14.25%, with markets expecting a year-end climb to 15%.GDP growth forecasts held at 2% for 2025 and 1.7% for
Agriculture drives modest expansion, rebounding from drought, but industry struggles under high borrowing costs.Public debt concerns
persist, with fiscal risks amplified by pre-2026 election spending pressures
for regulated prices dipped to 4.75% in 2025, but the broader IGP-M index remains elevated at 4.84%
Market skepticism endures
domestic demand, leaving growth reliant on exports and agriculture
With debt nearing 95% of GDP by 2027, policymakers face a tightrope walk: taming inflation without stifling an economy still healing from
years of turbulence.All figures derive from Central Bank reports, Focus Bulletin surveys, and IMF data.
