Deutsche Bank sees lenders drag back `healthy' India profit gain

INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
By Nupur AcharyaCorporate India is forecast to show a strong growth in profits in the January-to-March quarter, even as the banking sector
weighs on projections with its continuing struggle to clear a build-up of stressed loans. Fourth-quarter profits for NSE Nifty 50 Index
companies will grow 10 per cent from a year earlier, according to a research report by Deutsche Bank AG
have recovered steadily over the past two quarters as businesses rebound from the disruptions caused by a shock ban on high-value currency
notes in 2016 and the roll out of a new sales tax last July
Ltd
current growth momentum, said Tyagi, who manages assets equivalent to $1.9 billion. An uptick in earnings has been the missing piece of a
rally that sent Indian stocks to multiple records before a decline that began in February and was triggered by concerns about the financial
sector
In the past four years, Nifty earnings growth has increased at a measly 3 per cent compounded annual growth rate, data compiled by Bloomberg
show. Indian lenders, the biggest group in the index, have been a drag as they struggle to resolve about $210 billion of stressed assets
New rules from the central bank that put a timeline on recasting bad loans, while scrapping previous methods, means the sector will continue
to lag. Higher provisioning may result in a 34 per cent decline in earnings for lenders, according to Deutsche Bank