INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Wednesday's data supported RBI's decision to hold interest rates in its policy statement.Retail inflation rate fell to 2.33 per cent in
November, government data showed on Wednesday, due to weaker food inflation
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast November's annual increase in the consumer price index at 2.8 per cent, compared with October's 3.31
per cent.COMMENTARYVIVEK KUMAR, SENIOR ECONOMIST, YES BANK, MUMBAI"CPI inflation has been below market expectations for the 7th consecutive
Moreover it has also been undershooting RBI's target for the 4th consecutive month."The November CPI inflation print reinforces the
overwhelming impact of subdued food prices
Encouragingly, after the spike seen last month, core inflation has moderated to 5.7 per cent, its lowest in FY19 so far."Overall, the
picture on inflation is likely to provide comfort to the RBI and we continue to expect a change in the monetary policy stance to 'neutral'
in February (2019) from 'calibrated tightening' currently."ADITI NAYAR, PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, ICRA LTD, GURUGRAM"The sharp easing in the
headline CPI inflation reflects a combination of favorable factors such as the correction in retail fuel prices, discomfiting factors such
as a deeper disinflation in food prices, and base effects related to the waning impact of the HRA revision for central government
employees."In our view, factors such as weak post-monsoon rainfall and lagging rabi sowing cast some doubt on how long food prices would
remain in the disinflation zone."While it is too early to assess whether a rate cut would be forthcoming in the February 2019 (monetary
policy committee) review, there is a significant likelihood of a change in the monetary policy stance back to 'neutral' from 'calibrated
This is likely to serve as a precursor to a repo rate cut in Q1 FY2020, if inflationary risks remain in check."
